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Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors

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  • Campbell, John Y
  • Viceira, Luis M
  • White, Josh S.

Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that conservative investors should avoid exposure to foreign currency risk. Even if they hold foreign equities, they should hedge the currency exposure of these positions and should hold only domestic Treasury bills. This Paper argues that the conventional wisdom may be wrong for long-term investors. Domestic bills are risky for long-term investors because real interest rates vary over time, and bills must be rolled over at uncertain future interest rates. This risk can be hedged by holding foreign currency if the domestic currency tends to depreciate when the domestic real interest rate falls, as implied by the theory of uncovered interest parity. Empirically this effect is important and can lead conservative long-term investors to hold more than half their wealth in foreign currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell, John Y & Viceira, Luis M & White, Josh S., 2002. "Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 3463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3463
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicola Carcano, 2007. "Country and currency diversification of bond investments: do they really make sense for Swiss investors?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(1), pages 95-120, March.
    2. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
    3. Fabio Filipozzi & Kersti Harkmann, 2014. "Currency hedge – walking on the edge?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    4. Chang Shih-Chieh Bill & Tsai Chenghsien & Hung Li-Chuan, 2005. "Incorporating Foreign Equities in the Optimal Asset Allocation of an Insurer with the Consideration for Background Risks: Models and Numerical Illustrations," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Lane, Philip R., 2005. "Global bond portfolios and EMU," Working Paper Series 553, European Central Bank.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty-De Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2010. "Global Currency Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 87-121, February.
    7. Benjamin H Cohen, 2005. "Currency choice in international bond issuance," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    8. Morse, Adair & Shive, Sophie, 2011. "Patriotism in your portfolio," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 411-440, May.
    9. Carlos Eduardo Meyer dos Santos & Marcos Antonio C. da Silveira, 2010. "Depósitos Em Moeda Estrangeira Como Hedge Para Investidores Brasileiros De Longo Prazo: Uma Aplicação Da Teoria Da Escolha Estratégica De Portfólio," Discussion Papers 1462, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    10. Brière, Marie & Signori, Ombretta, 2013. "Hedging inflation risk in a developing economy: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 209-222.
    11. Gianni De Nicolo & Patrick Honohan & Alain Ize, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System; Good or Bad?," IMF Working Papers 03/146, International Monetary Fund.
    12. repec:eee:jebusi:v:93:y:2017:i:c:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2009. "Multi-period portfolio choice and the intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 427-453, April.
    14. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Global Bond Portfolios and EMU," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    15. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2014. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 217-238.
    16. Walker, Eduardo, 2008. "Strategic currency hedging and global portfolio investments upside down," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(6), pages 657-668, June.
    17. Suh, Sangwon, 2011. "Currency hedging failure in international equity investments and an efficient hedging strategy: The perspective of Korean investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 390-403, September.
    18. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Susan Thorp, 2004. "That Courage is not inconsistent with Caution: Foreign Currency Hedging for Superannuation Funds," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 148, Econometric Society.
    20. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Out-of-sample bond risk premium predictions: A global common factor," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 155-173.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange rates; home bias; intertemporal hedging demand; portfolio choice; uncovered interest parity;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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