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Depósitos Em Moeda Estrangeira Como Hedge Para Investidores Brasileiros De Longo Prazo: Uma Aplicação Da Teoria Da Escolha Estratégica De Portfólio

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  • Carlos Eduardo Meyer dos Santos
  • Marcos Antonio C. da Silveira

Abstract

O viés doméstico é observado na composição dos portfólios de diferentes classes de ativos financeiros. A literatura oferece argumentos conflitantes quanto à racionalidade deste comportamento no caso de portfólios investidos em títulos de curto prazo, usualmente denominados depósitos em moeda. No contexto de uma economia sujeita à forte volatilidade cambial, o pensamento convencional sugere que investidores conservadores devem concentrar estes depósitos em títulos domésticos. No entanto, estes instrumentos podem ser bastante arriscados para um investidor de longo prazo devido à incerteza quanto à taxa de juros de curto prazo vigente nos períodos futuros. Não menos importante, sob a hipótese da paridade descoberta de juros, pode ser ótimo para este investidor manter depósitos em moeda estrangeira como hedge intertemporal contra uma deterioração das oportunidades domésticas de investimento. Na raiz deste argumento está o fato de que o menor retorno esperado dos títulos domésticos, à medida que estimula a saída de capitais, é acompanhado pela depreciação real da moeda doméstica. Logo, depósitos em moeda estrangeira reduzem a volatilidade da riqueza futura, uma vez que o tamanho da riqueza corrente tende a aumentar quando seu retorno esperado diminui. Este trabalho avalia a eficiência dos depósitos em moeda estrangeira como hedge intertemporal para investidores brasileiros de longo prazo. A principal conclusão é que investidores razoavelmente conservadores devem manter parte significativa destes depósitos em dólares, libras e ienes. The home bias is observed in the composition of portfolios of different classes of financial assets. The literature offers conflicting arguments about the rationality of this behavior in the case of the portfolios invested in short-term securities, commonly known as currency deposits. In the context of an economy subject to strong volatility, the conventional wisdom suggests that conservative investors should concentrate these deposits on domestic bonds. However, these instruments can be very risky for a long-term investor due to uncertainty about the future short-term interest rate. Not least important, under the assumption of uncovered interest parity, it may be optimal for this investor to maintain foreign currency deposits as a hedge against a deterioration of the domestic investment opportunities. On the root of this argument is the fact that the lower expected return on domestic bonds, as it stimulates the outflow of capital, it is accompanied by real depreciation of the domestic currency. Therefore, the foreign currency deposits reduce the volatility of future wealth as the size of current wealth tends to increase when its expected return decreases. This work evaluates the effectiveness of the foreign currency deposits as an intertemporal hedge for Brazilian long-term investors. The main conclusion is that fairly conservative investors should allocate significant part of these deposits in dollars, pounds and ienes.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Eduardo Meyer dos Santos & Marcos Antonio C. da Silveira, 2010. "Depósitos Em Moeda Estrangeira Como Hedge Para Investidores Brasileiros De Longo Prazo: Uma Aplicação Da Teoria Da Escolha Estratégica De Portfólio," Discussion Papers 1462, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1462
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