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Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors

Author

Listed:
  • John Y. Campbell

    (Harvard University)

  • Luis M. Viceira

    (Harvard University)

  • Joshua S. White

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Conventional wisdom holds that conservative investors should avoid exposure to foreign currency risk. Even if they hold foreign equities, they should hedge the currency exposure of these positions and hold only domestic Treasury bills. This paper argues that the conventional wisdom may be wrong for long-term investors. Domestic bills are risky for long-term investors, because real interest rates vary over time and bills must be rolled over at uncertain future interest rates. This risk can be hedged by holding foreign currency if the domestic currency tends to depreciate when the domestic real interest rate falls. Empirically this effect is important. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2003

Suggested Citation

  • John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira & Joshua S. White, 2003. "Foreign Currency for Long-Term Investors," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 1-25, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:113:y:2003:i:486:p:c1-c25
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    Cited by:

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    2. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
    3. Julia Reynolds & Leopold Sögner & Martin Wagner, 2021. "Deviations from Triangular Arbitrage Parity in Foreign Exchange and Bitcoin Markets," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 105-146, June.
    4. Fabio Filipozzi & Kersti Harkmann, 2014. "Currency hedge – walking on the edge?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    5. Chan, Kalok & Yang, Jian & Zhou, Yinggang, 2018. "Conditional co-skewness and safe-haven currencies: A regime switching approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 58-80.
    6. Chang Shih-Chieh Bill & Tsai Chenghsien & Hung Li-Chuan, 2005. "Incorporating Foreign Equities in the Optimal Asset Allocation of an Insurer with the Consideration for Background Risks: Models and Numerical Illustrations," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Global Bond Portfolios and EMU," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty‐De Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2010. "Global Currency Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 87-121, February.
    9. Benjamin H Cohen, 2005. "Currency choice in international bond issuance," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    10. Morse, Adair & Shive, Sophie, 2011. "Patriotism in your portfolio," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 411-440, May.
    11. Carlos Eduardo Meyer dos Santos & Marcos Antonio C. da Silveira, 2010. "Depósitos Em Moeda Estrangeira Como Hedge Para Investidores Brasileiros De Longo Prazo: Uma Aplicação Da Teoria Da Escolha Estratégica De Portfólio," Discussion Papers 1462, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    12. Brière, Marie & Signori, Ombretta, 2013. "Hedging inflation risk in a developing economy: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 209-222.
    13. Mr. Gianni De Nicolo & Mr. Patrick Honohan & Mr. Alain Ize, 2003. "Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad?," IMF Working Papers 2003/146, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Bykova, Anna & Jardon, Carlos M., 2017. "Lean against the wind: The moderation effect of foreign investments during the economic recession in Russia," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2009. "Multi-period portfolio choice and the intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 427-453, April.
    16. Pablo Castañeda & Heinz Rudolph, 2010. "Portfolio Choice, Minimum Return Guarantees, and Competition in DC Pension Systems," Working Papers 39, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Feb 2010.
    17. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2014. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 217-238.
    18. Walker, Eduardo, 2008. "Strategic currency hedging and global portfolio investments upside down," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(6), pages 657-668, June.
    19. Suh, Sangwon, 2011. "Currency hedging failure in international equity investments and an efficient hedging strategy: The perspective of Korean investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 390-403, September.
    20. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Susan Thorp, 2004. "That Courage is not inconsistent with Caution: Foreign Currency Hedging for Superannuation Funds," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 148, Econometric Society.
    22. Jochen M. Schmittmann, 2010. "Currency Hedging for International Portfolios," IMF Working Papers 2010/151, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2015. "Out-of-sample bond risk premium predictions: A global common factor," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 155-173.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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