IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v71y2025ics154461232401393x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bitcoin arbitrage and exchange default risk

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Weiwei
  • Intini, Silvia
  • Jahanshahloo, Hossein

Abstract

We investigate how exchange default risk and liquidity affect Bitcoin cross-exchange arbitrage opportunities. Analysing minute-level data from 16 cryptocurrency exchanges (April 2013–April 2024), we find arbitrage opportunities last longer when higher-risk exchanges have higher prices, as traders are cautious of default risks. There is a strong positive relation between capital flows from high-risk to low-risk exchanges and arbitrage opportunities, showing a preference for safer exchanges. Liquidity accelerates arbitrage by enabling faster execution, but high transaction fees and blockchain congestion slow capital transfers. The paper highlights exchange risk, liquidity, and transaction costs as key factors in Bitcoin market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Weiwei & Intini, Silvia & Jahanshahloo, Hossein, 2025. "Bitcoin arbitrage and exchange default risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:71:y:2025:i:c:s154461232401393x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106364
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461232401393X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106364?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    2. Jahanshahloo, Hossein & Corbet, Shaen & Oxley, Les, 2022. "Seeking sigma: Time-of-the-day effects on the Bitcoin network," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Andrei Shynkevich, 2023. "Law of one price and return on Arbitrage Trading: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(3), pages 763-792, September.
    4. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh & Jeff Jiewei Yu, 2011. "Short Arbitrage, Return Asymmetry, and the Accrual Anomaly," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(7), pages 2429-2461.
    6. Dominik M. Rösch & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Mathijs A. van Dijk, 2017. "The Dynamics of Market Efficiency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1151-1187.
    7. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    8. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100409, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Brauneis, Alexander & Mestel, Roland & Riordan, Ryan & Theissen, Erik, 2021. "How to measure the liquidity of cryptocurrency markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Strych, Jan-Oliver, 2022. "The impact of margin trading and short selling by retail investors on market price efficiency: Empirical evidence from bitcoin exchanges," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    12. Isard, Peter, 1977. "How Far Can We Push the "Law of One Price"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 942-948, December.
    13. Crépellière, Tommy & Pelster, Matthias & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2023. "Arbitrage in the market for cryptocurrencies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 293-319.
    15. Pieters, Gina & Vivanco, Sofia, 2017. "Financial regulations and price inconsistencies across Bitcoin markets," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-14.
    16. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen & Basu, Soumya, 2019. "From mining to markets: The evolution of bitcoin transaction fees," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 91-109.
    17. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    18. Gur Huberman & Jacob D Leshno & Ciamac Moallemi, 2021. "Monopoly without a Monopolist: An Economic Analysis of the Bitcoin Payment System [Blockchain Economics]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 3011-3040.
    19. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    20. Shane A. Corwin & Paul Schultz, 2012. "A Simple Way to Estimate Bid‐Ask Spreads from Daily High and Low Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 719-760, April.
    21. Nikolaus Hautsch & Christoph Scheu & Stefan Voigt, 2024. "Building trust takes time: limits to arbitrage for blockchain-based assets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1345-1381.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shimeng Shi & Jia Zhai & Yingying Wu, 2024. "Informational inefficiency on bitcoin futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 642-667, April.
    2. Saggese, Pietro & Belmonte, Alessandro & Dimitri, Nicola & Facchini, Angelo & Böhme, Rainer, 2023. "Arbitrageurs in the Bitcoin ecosystem: Evidence from user-level trading patterns in the Mt. Gox exchange platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 251-270.
    3. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    4. Duan, Kun & Li, Zeming & Urquhart, Andrew & Ye, Jinqiang, 2021. "Dynamic efficiency and arbitrage potential in Bitcoin: A long-memory approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Crépellière, Tommy & Pelster, Matthias & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2023. "Arbitrage in the market for cryptocurrencies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Martin Angerer & Marius Gramlich & Michael Hanke, 2025. "Order Book Liquidity on Crypto Exchanges," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-29, February.
    7. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2022. "Cryptocurrency returns under empirical asset pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Divakaruni, Anantha & Zimmerman, Peter, 2023. "The Lightning Network: Turning Bitcoin into money," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta & Albert J. Menkveld, 2023. "Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 967-1014, April.
    10. Chen, Jian & Haboub, Ahmad & Khan, Ali, 2024. "Limits of arbitrage and their impact on market efficiency: Evidence from China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Ren, Xiaohang & Xiao, Ya & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Spillover effects between fossil energy and green markets: Evidence from informational inefficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Nikolaus Hautsch & Christoph Scheu & Stefan Voigt, 2024. "Building trust takes time: limits to arbitrage for blockchain-based assets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1345-1381.
    13. Alexander, Carol & Chen, Xi & Deng, Jun & Wang, Tianyi, 2024. "Arbitrage opportunities and efficiency tests in crypto derivatives," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Ao Shu & Feiyang Cheng & Jianlei Han & Zini Liang & Zheyao Pan, 2023. "Arbitrage across different Bitcoin exchange venues: Perspectives from investor base and market related events," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(5), pages 5183-5210, December.
    15. Sakkas, Athanasios & Urquhart, Andrew, 2024. "Blockchain factors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    16. Hinzen, Franz J. & John, Kose & Saleh, Fahad, 2022. "Bitcoin’s limited adoption problem," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 347-369.
    17. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2021. "Blockchain analysis of the Bitcoin market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118897, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Li Guo & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Yubo Tao, 2024. "A Time-Varying Network for Cryptocurrencies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 437-456, April.
    19. Ferreira, Daniel & Li, Jin & Nikolowa, Radoslawa, 2023. "Corporate capture of blockchain governance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115618, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Bianchi, Daniele & Babiak, Mykola, 2022. "On the performance of cryptocurrency funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Cryptocurrencies; Default risk; Exchanges; Arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:71:y:2025:i:c:s154461232401393x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.