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Bubbles in House Prices and their Impact on Consumption: Evidence for the US

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  • Efthymios Pavlidis
  • I Paya
  • D Peel
  • A M Spiru

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that some aggregate and regional U.S. real house price indices exhibited a bubble in the last few years according to the Phillips et al. (2007) unit root test. We subsequently investigate whether house price acceleration (deceleration) had a signi.cant impact on consumption in an error correction mechanism implied by a wide class of optimizing models. Our results support the argument that real house prices have their major effect on consumption only during the bubble period.

Suggested Citation

  • Efthymios Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel & A M Spiru, 2009. "Bubbles in House Prices and their Impact on Consumption: Evidence for the US," Working Papers 601552, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:601552
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    8. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Andre & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate? Evidence from OECD Countries using an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 58(1), pages 19-70.
    2. Vittorio Peretti & Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201216, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of regional housing prices in the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(22), pages 2259-2277, May.
    4. Maria Christidou & Panagiotis Konstantinou, 2011. "Housing Market and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Evidence from U.S. States," Discussion Paper Series 2011_14, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2011.
    5. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Are there housing bubbles in South Africa? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 18(5), pages 517-532.
    6. Ogonna Nneji & Chris Brooks & Charles Ward, 2011. "Intrinsic and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the U.S. Housing Market 1960-2009," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Shah, Zahra B., 2011. "An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 891-899, May.
    8. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Macroeconomic Variables and South African Stock Return Predictability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 612-622.
    9. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1133-1154, November.
    10. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2012. "South African stock return predictability in the context data mining: The role of financial variables and international stock returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 908-916.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working papers 2010-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    12. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
    13. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "Assessing the Effects of Housing Market Shocks on Output: The Case of South Africa," MPRA Paper 69610, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2016.

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