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How do Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption Interact? Evidence from New Zealand

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Abstract

This paper characterises the relationship between wealth and consumption in New Zealand. We find that there exists a long-run cointegration relation between household consumption, income, housing wealth and net financial wealth. Permanent shocks account for most of the variation in wealth. This implies that our cointegration estimates accurately capture the effect of most wealth changes, in contrast with the findings of Lettau and Ludvigson (2004) for the United States. Our estimates suggest that consumption has adjusted sluggishly to restore longrun equilibrium, but also that consumption booms have anticipated equilibrium-restoring increases in housing wealth. Furthermore, we estimate two alternative econometric models which are more robust to instability in the long-run relationship. All three of our models suggest that permanent changes in wealth have economically important effects on consumption. The dollar-for dollar-effect of financial wealth exceeds that of housing wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel De Veirman & Ashley Dunstan, 2008. "How do Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption Interact? Evidence from New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2008/05
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Discussion%20papers/2008/dp08-05.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "The long run relationship between private consumption and wealth: common and idiosyncratic effects," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 11(1), pages 21-34, April.
    2. David Baqaee, 2010. "Intertemporal Choice: A Nash Bargaining Approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Daan Steenkamp, 2010. "New Zealand’s imbalances in a cross-country context," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 73, pages 37-49, December.
    4. Efthymios Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel & A M Spiru, 2009. "Bubbles in House Prices and their Impact on Consumption: Evidence for the US," Working Papers 601552, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    5. Willie Lahari, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks among Pacific Island Economies - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1001, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2010.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Are Stock and Housing Returns Complements or Substitutes? Evidence from OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3621, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson, 2010. "Exporting and performance: Market entry, expansion and destination characteristics," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. Fisher, Lance A. & Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M., 2010. "The response of Australian consumption to housing wealth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 284-299, March.
    9. Jean-Pierre Andre, 2011. "Economic Imbalances: New Zealand's Structural Challenge," Treasury Working Paper Series 11/03, New Zealand Treasury.
    10. Emmanuel De Veirman & Ashley Dunstan, 2012. "Debt Dynamics and the Relationship Between Consumption and Cyclical Wealth Changes," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 330-340, September.
    11. Neroli Austin & Geordie Reid, 2017. "NZSIM: A model of the New Zealand economy for forecasting and policy analysis," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 80, pages 1-14, January.
    12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 562-578.
    13. Oscar Parkyn, 2010. "Estimating New Zealand's Structural Budget Balance," Treasury Working Paper Series 10/08, New Zealand Treasury.
    14. Sarah Drought & Chris McDonald, 2011. "Forecasting house price inflation: a model combination approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    15. Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 2011. "Submission to the Productivity Commission inquiry on housing affordability," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 74, pages 30-38, September.
    16. Dalina Amonhaemanon, 2015. "The Impact of Stock Price and Real Estate Price Shocks on Consumption: The Thai Experience," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 137-148, January.
    17. Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Long-Run Relationship between Consumption, House Prices and Stock Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Data," Working Papers 201326, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    18. David R. Baqaee, 2009. "Sharing a Risky Cake," Working Papers in Economics 09/20, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    19. Trinh Le & John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2010. "Household Wealth and Saving in New Zealand: Evidence from the Longitudinal Survey of Family, Income and Employment," Working Papers 10_06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    20. Martin Wong, 2017. "Revisiting the Wealth Effect on Consumption in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2017/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    21. David Hargreaves, 2008. "The tax system and housing demand in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    22. Mark Smith, 2010. "Evaluating household expenditures and their relationship with house prices at the microeconomic level," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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