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Housing Market and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Evidence from U.S. States

What are the effects of monetary policy on the housing market? Is the response of the housing market similar across different states? We explore the impact of monetary policy shocks on real house prices and housing investment, using US state-level data. To this end we estimate VAR models for the period 1988-2009, to assess the differential effect - if any - of a common monetary policy shock on house prices and investment. Our VAR models also allow us to explore the macroeconomic effect of wealth shocks that originate in the housing market (housing prices). Our empirical models include key macroeconomic variables, namely personal income, prices and the federal funds rate, as well as housing market variables, e.g. real house prices, given by the FHFA house price index, and housing investment, proxied by the number of housing starts. Our baseline estimates suggest that transmission of monetary policy is heterogeneous across US states. Moreover, our VAR models indicate the presence of a wealth effect across most US states, as a positive housing price innovation leads to a strong, negative response of personal income.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Macedonia in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2011_14.

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Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision: Sep 2011
Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2011_14
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.uom.gr/index.php?tmima=3

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  1. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the�macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
  2. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  3. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carlo A. Favero, . "Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: an Evaluation," Working Papers 132, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  4. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-64, April.
  5. Matteo Iacoviello, 2004. "Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: a Structural Econometric Analysis," 2004 Meeting Papers 201, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
  7. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850, March.
  8. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 1994. "The effects of monetary policy shocks: evidence from the Flow of Funds," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  10. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
  11. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "The Effect Of Monetary Policy On House Price Inflation: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach," Working Papers 200903, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  12. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-89, August.
  13. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2002. "The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Housing Market," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 541, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 29 Aug 2003.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February.
  15. Todd H. Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2009. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Using Us State Level," Working Papers 09-04, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  16. Daniel Gros & Carsten Hefeker, 2002. "One Size Must Fit All: National Divergences in a Monetary Union," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 247-262, 08.
  17. Aksoy, Yunus & De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans, 2002. "Do asymmetries matter for European monetary policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 443-469, March.
  18. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2008. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S," Working Paper 2008/24, Norges Bank.
  19. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross-country Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 2750, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Efthymios Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel & A M Spiru, 2009. "Bubbles in House Prices and their Impact on Consumption: Evidence for the US," Working Papers 601552, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  21. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
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