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The Real Price of Housing and Money Supply Shocks: Time Series Evidence and Theoretical Simulations

  • Lastrapes, W.D.

I estimate the dynamic responses of owner-occupied housing prices to money supply shocks, and compare these responses to those predicted by a dynamic equilibrium model of the housing market. The empirical responses are identified from general sets of restrictions that are consistent with a wide class of theoretical models. Using monthly data, I find that money shocks have real effects on the housing market: both relative housing prices and real sales rise in the short-run in response to positive shocks to the money supply. The estimated price responses closely match the predictions of the theoretical model for reasonable values of the theoretical parameters.

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Paper provided by Georgia - College of Business Administration, Department of Economics in its series Papers with number 00-479.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:georec:00-479
Contact details of provider: Postal: U.S.A.; The University of Georgia, College of Business Administration, Department of Economics, Athens, GA 30602
Web page: http://www.terry.uga.edu/

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  1. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
  2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, June.
  4. DiPasquale, Denise & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 1995. "Do House Price Indices Based on Transacting Units Represent the Entire Stock? Evidence from the American Housing Survey," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 195-229, September.
  5. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  7. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald, 1980. "The Theory of Housing and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 833-847, November.
  8. W. Douglas McMillin, 2001. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Comparing Contemporaneous versus Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 618-636, January.
  9. Lastrapes, W. D., 1998. "International evidence on equity prices, interest rates and money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-406, June.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1996. "Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison," Staff Report 227, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Donald Bruce & Douglas Holtz-Eakin, 1997. "Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform and Residential Housing Values," NBER Working Papers 6282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November.
  13. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-38, October.
  15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-82, August.
  16. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-97, September.
  17. Keating, John W., 1996. "Structural information in recursive VAR orderings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1557-1580.
  18. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  19. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  20. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  21. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
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