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Speculation in agricultural land

Author

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  • Maurice J. Roche

    () (Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland)

  • Kieran McQuinn

    () (Teagasc, Dublin, Ireland)

Abstract

Agricultural land prices in many developed countries rose and then fell dramatically over a relatively short period of time in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Most of the models in the literature that describe the dynamic behaviour of agricultural land prices suggest that these sharp price movements were not completely due to market fundamentals. Many attribute part of this price volatility to speculation. This phenomenon is investigated by estimating a general regime-switching model that nests many types of speculative behaviour as special cases. We find strong evidence to support a partially collapsing bubbles story about Irish agricultural land prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice J. Roche & Kieran McQuinn, 2000. "Speculation in agricultural land," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1010700, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1010700
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    File URL: http://repec.maynoothuniversity.ie/mayecw-files/N1010700.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jakob B Madsen, 2011. "A q Model of House Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 03-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Robert Campbell & John Knight, 2006. "Are There Rational Speculative Bubbles in REITs?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 105-127, March.
    3. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February.
    4. Woltjer, Geert B. & Luijt, Jan L. & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2008. "A Land Market Cycle in the Netherlands," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44376, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Mc Quinn, Kieran, 2004. "A Model of the Irish Housing Sector," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculation; Fads; Bubbles; Farmland prices;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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