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Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes

Author

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  • Simon van Norden

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Huntley Schaller

    (Carleton University)

  • )

Abstract

This paper explores two very different models which might account for stock market crashes. A key innovative feature of our paper is that we use the models to show how their implications for stock market crashes may be tested using switching-regression econometrics. We are careful to show that our switching regressions reveal new patterns in the data which go well beyond known stylized facts (such as time-varying volatility, the leverage effect, and mean reversion.) We refer to the first model, which is based on historical accounts of "manias and panics," as a model of speculative behaviour; its key features are that "overvaluation" increases the probability and expected size of a stock market crash. We refer to the second model, in which there are regime switches in epxected dividend growth rates, as a model of switching fundamentals. Our results suggest that both speculative behaviour and news about fundamentals may be needed to explain stock market crashes.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes," Econometrics 9502003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9502003
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    Cited by:

    1. Isabelle Weberpals, 1997. "The Liquidity Trap: Evidence from Japan," Staff Working Papers 97-4, Bank of Canada.
    2. KevinJ. Lansing, 2010. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
    3. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-251, May-June.
    4. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2011. "What is driving oil futures prices? Fundamentals versus speculation," Working Paper Series 1371, European Central Bank.
    5. Ryan Lemand, 2003. "The Contagion Effect Between the Volatilities of the NASDAQ-100 and the IT.CA :A Univariate and A Bivariate Switching Approach," Econometrics 0307002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Dec 2020.
    6. Lof, Matthijs, 2010. "Heterogeneity in Stock Pricing: A STAR Model with Multivariate Transition Functions," MPRA Paper 30520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Keith Anderson & Chris Brooks & Sotiris Tsolacos, 2009. "Testing for periodically collapsing rational speculative bubbles in US REITs," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2009-11, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    8. Nick Chamie & Alain DeSerres & René Lalonde, "undated". "Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry: A Comparison of Europe and the United States," Staff Working Papers 94-1, Bank of Canada.
    9. Daniel Racette & Jacques Raynauld & Christian Sigouin, "undated". "An Up-to-Date and Improved BVAR Model of the Canadian Economy," Staff Working Papers 94-4, Bank of Canada.
    10. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Revisiting dividend yield dynamics and returns predictability: Evidence from a time-varying ESTR model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 870-883, August.
    11. Robert Vigfusson & Simon van Norden, 1996. "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Detect Bubbles?," Staff Working Papers 96-11, Bank of Canada.
    12. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75.
    13. Ryan Lemand, 2003. "New Technology Stock Market Indexes Contagion: A VAR-dccMVGARCH Approach," Econometrics 0307003, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Dec 2020.
    14. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "Fads or bubbles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
    15. Nick Chamie & Alain DeSerres & Rene Lalonde, 1994. "Optimum Currency Areas and Shock Asymmetry A Comparison of Europe and the United States," International Finance 9406001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Aug 1994.
    16. Sandeep Patel & Asani Sarkar, 1998. "Stock market crises in developed and emerging markets," Research Paper 9809, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Barry Cozier & Greg Tkacz, "undated". "The Term Structure and Real Activity in Canada," Staff Working Papers 94-3, Bank of Canada.
    18. Ryan Lemand, 2003. "Should Stock Market Indexes Time Varying Correlations Be Taken Into Account? A Conditional Variance Multivariate Approach," Econometrics 0307004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Dec 2020.
    19. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2002. "A Three-Regime Model of Speculative Behaviour: Modelling the Evolution of Bubbles in the S&P 500 Composite Index," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2002-14, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    20. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2002. "Forecasting the Collapse of Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the S&P 500 Composite Index," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2002-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.

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