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Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes

  • Simon van Norden

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Huntley Schaller

    (Carleton University)

  • )

This paper explores two very different models which might account for stock market crashes. A key innovative feature of our paper is that we use the models to show how their implications for stock market crashes may be tested using switching-regression econometrics. We are careful to show that our switching regressions reveal new patterns in the data which go well beyond known stylized facts (such as time-varying volatility, the leverage effect, and mean reversion.) We refer to the first model, which is based on historical accounts of "manias and panics," as a model of speculative behaviour; its key features are that "overvaluation" increases the probability and expected size of a stock market crash. We refer to the second model, in which there are regime switches in epxected dividend growth rates, as a model of switching fundamentals. Our results suggest that both speculative behaviour and news about fundamentals may be needed to explain stock market crashes.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9502003.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 07 Feb 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9502003
Note: 45 pages of text & 8 pages graphs. Text and Graphs in separate Postscript files. Both files compressed in a single Info-zip archive, then uuencoded.
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