Forecasting the Collapse of Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the S&P 500 Composite Index
In this paper we test for the presence of periodically partially collapsing, positive and negative, speculative bubbles in the S&P 500 Composite Index for the period 1888-2001. We extend existing regime-switching models of speculative behaviour by including abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of the bubble collapse. Abnormal volume is included as both a classifying variable that helps predict the probability of the bubble surviving, and as a factor of risk in the surviving state equation. Increased volume is considered a signal that market beliefs concerning the future of the bubble are changing. We show that abnormal volume is a significant predictor and classifier of returns. Furthermore, we examine the financial usefulness of the augmented model by studying the risk-adjusted profits of a trading rule formed using inferences from it. Use of the augmented model trading rule leads to higher risk adjusted returns than those obtained from employing existing models or a buy and hold strategy.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2002|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Business 78:5, 2005, 2003-2036|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: PO Box 218, Whiteknights, Reading, Berks, RG6 6AA|
Phone: +44 (0) 118 378 8226
Fax: +44 (0) 118 975 0236
Web page: http://www.henley.reading.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- van Norden Simon & Vigfusson Robert, 1998. "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Reliably Detect Bubbles?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, April.
- Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995.
"Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes,"
- Van Norden, S. & Schaller, H., 1996. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching and Stock Market Crashes," Staff Working Papers 96-13, Bank of Canada.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
- Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
- Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 2067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-154, March-Apr.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:hrv:faseco:30703980 is not listed on IDEAS
- White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-770, August.
- Weil, Philippe, 1990. "On the Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1467-1474, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2002-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Pearson)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.