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The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity

Listed author(s):
  • Reitz, Stefan
  • Stadtmann, Georg
  • Taylor, Mark P.

We investigate the determinants of forecast heterogeneity in the JPY/USD market using panel data from Consensus Economics. We find that past exchange-rate volatility increases forecast dispersion, while foreign exchange intervention of the Japanese Ministry of Finance dampens expectation heterogeneity.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 108 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 62-64

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:108:y:2010:i:1:p:62-64
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
  2. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
  3. Reitz, Stefan & Slopek, Ulf Dieter, 2008. "Nonlinear oil price dynamics: a tale of heterogeneous speculators?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Takatoshi Ito, 2002. "Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective?: The Japanese Experiences in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky & Michael Schröder, 2008. "Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence on the Chartist-Fundamentalist Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2502, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Takatoshi Ito & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2004. "What Prompts Japan to Intervene in the Forex Market? A New Approach to a Reaction Function," NBER Working Papers 10456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. M. Beine & A. Bénassy-Quéré & E. Dauchy & R. MacDonald, 2002. "The Impact of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange-Rate Forecast Heterogeneity," THEMA Working Papers 2002-22, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  11. Elliott, Graham & ITO, TAKATOSHI, 1998. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange Rate Market," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5wm0q8mz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  12. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2008. "What drives heterogeneity in foreign exchange rate expectations: insights from a new survey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 360-367.
  13. Beine, Michel & Janssen, Gust & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Should central bankers talk to the foreign exchange markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 776-803, September.
  14. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers 2008-56, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  15. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.
  16. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Communication and exchange rate policy," Working Paper Series 0363, European Central Bank.
  17. Frenkel, Michael & Pierdzioch, Christian & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-39.
  18. Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2009. "Central bank interventions and implied exchange rate correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 862-873, December.
  19. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  20. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
  21. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-185, May.
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  23. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
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