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The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity


  • Reitz, Stefan
  • Stadtmann, Georg
  • Taylor, Mark P.


We investigate the determinants of forecast heterogeneity in the JPY/USD market using panel data from Consensus Economics. We find that past exchange-rate volatility increases forecast dispersion, while foreign exchange intervention of the Japanese Ministry of Finance dampens expectation heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Reitz, Stefan & Stadtmann, Georg & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "The effects of Japanese interventions on FX-forecast heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-64, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:108:y:2010:i:1:p:62-64

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Christian Dreger & Georg Stadtmann, 2008. "What drives heterogeneity in foreign exchange rate expectations: insights from a new survey," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 360-367.
    2. Hillebrand, Eric & Schnabl, Gunther & Ulu, Yasemin, 2009. "Japanese foreign exchange intervention and the yen-to-dollar exchange rate: A simultaneous equations approach using realized volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 490-505, July.
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    6. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
    7. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Larribeau, Sophie & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Models of exchange rate expectations: how much heterogeneity?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-136, April.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Beine, Michel & Benassy-Quere, Agnes & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "The impact of central bank intervention on exchange-rate forecast heterogeneity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 38-63, March.
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    13. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    14. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
    15. Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2009. "Central bank interventions and implied exchange rate correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 862-873, December.
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    17. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2007. "What prompts Japan to intervene in the Forex market? A new approach to a reaction function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
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    22. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 270-283, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Satoshi Kawanishi, 2011. "The Information Improving Channel of Exchange Rate Intervention: How Do Official Announcements Work?," Discussion Papers 1116, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2015. "Herding behavior and loss functions of exchange rate forecasters over interventions and financial crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 266-276.
    3. Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2011. "Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact; Evidence from Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 11/48, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item


    Exchange rates Forecast heterogeneity Survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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