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Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective

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  • Filip Novotny
  • Marie Rakova

Abstract

Consensus Economics forecasts for euro-area GDP growth, consumer and producer price inflation and the USD/EUR exchange rate are used by the Czech National Bank to make assumptions about future external economic developments. This paper compares the accuracy of the aforementioned Consensus forecasts to those of the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and also to the naive forecast and the forecast implied by the forward exchange rate. In the period from 1994 to 2009 Consensus forecasts for effective euro-area consumer price inflation and GDP growth beat the alternatives by a difference which is typically statistically significant. The results are more diverse for the pre-crisis sample (1994–2007). The Consensus forecast for euro-area producer price inflation significantly outperforms the naive forecast in the short-term. Finally, the Consensus forecast for the USD/EUR exchange rate during the period from 2002 to 2009 is more precise than the naive forecast and the forecast implied by the forward rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova, 2010. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Working Papers 2010/14, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2010/14
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    1. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlaváèek & Roman Horváth, 2008. "Do Central Bank Forecast Errors Contribute to the Missing of Inflation Targets? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 434-453, December.
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    3. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb09/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb10/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2012. "Improving the accuracy of consensus forecasts for the EURO area," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 4(2), pages 11-15, Decembre.
    6. Constantin Mitru? & Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "The Indicators’ Inadequacy and the Predictions’ Accuracy," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(4), pages 430-442, August.
    7. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb10/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hamid Baghestani & Liliana Danila, 2014. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Forecasting in the Czech Republic: Do Analysts Know Better than a Random Walk?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(4), pages 282-295, September.
    9. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb11/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ondřej Čížek, 2017. "Reakční funkce Evropské centrální banky [The Reaction Function of the European Central Bank]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(4), pages 424-439.
    12. Mihaela Bratu, 2013. "New Methods of Evaluating the Forecasts Accuracy: A Case Study for USA Inflation," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 21-37, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting accuracy; prediction process; survey forecasts.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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