Inflation Forecasts Errors in the Czech Republic: Evidence from a Panel of Institutions
In: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007
The results of our empirical analysis rather serve in support of a hypothesis that inflation target undershooting occurs because the economy has been exposed to a series of shocks restraining inflation (the hypothesis of long series of asymmetric shocks) and in part also because the prognostic apparatus has been biased (the hypothesis of skewed sight) as compared to the other institutions. In view of the recent literature dealing with the accuracy of forecasts, which shows that using more models leads to more reliable forecasts (Fildes and Stekler, 2002), it can be argued that the development and application of alternative prediction models would improve forecast accuracy.
|This chapter was published in: ||This item is provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes with number
06.||Handle:|| RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:06||Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 00420 2 2442 1111
Fax: 00420 2 2421 8522
Web page: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_intro/Email:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006.
"Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography,"
2006/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography," Working Paper Series 0578, European Central Bank.
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Helge Berger, 2006. "Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy; Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography," IMF Working Papers 06/41, International Monetary Fund.
- Fujiwara, Ippei, 2005. "Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 255-261, December.
- William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002.
"Evaluating FOMC forecasts,"
2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- N. T. Valev & J. A. Carlson, 2003. "Sources of dispersion in consumer inflation forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 77-81.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jan Babecky)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.