Inflation Forecasts Errors in the Czech Republic: Evidence from a Panel of Institutions
In: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007
The results of our empirical analysis rather serve in support of a hypothesis that inflation target undershooting occurs because the economy has been exposed to a series of shocks restraining inflation (the hypothesis of long series of asymmetric shocks) and in part also because the prognostic apparatus has been biased (the hypothesis of skewed sight) as compared to the other institutions. In view of the recent literature dealing with the accuracy of forecasts, which shows that using more models leads to more reliable forecasts (Fildes and Stekler, 2002), it can be argued that the development and application of alternative prediction models would improve forecast accuracy.
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- Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006.
"Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography,"
2006/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Helge Berger, 2006. "Forecasting ECB Monetary Policy; Accuracy is (Still) a Matter of Geography," IMF Working Papers 06/41, International Monetary Fund.
- Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography," Working Paper Series 0578, European Central Bank.
- Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003.
"Evaluating FOMC forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
- N. T. Valev & J. A. Carlson, 2003. "Sources of dispersion in consumer inflation forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 77-81.
- Fujiwara, Ippei, 2005. "Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 255-261, December.
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