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Inflation Forecasts Errors in the Czech Republic: Evidence from a Panel of Institutions

In: Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007

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  • Jan Babecky
  • Jiri Podpiera

Abstract

The results of our empirical analysis rather serve in support of a hypothesis that inflation target undershooting occurs because the economy has been exposed to a series of shocks restraining inflation (the hypothesis of long series of asymmetric shocks) and in part also because the prognostic apparatus has been biased (the hypothesis of skewed sight) as compared to the other institutions. In view of the recent literature dealing with the accuracy of forecasts, which shows that using more models leads to more reliable forecasts (Fildes and Stekler, 2002), it can be argued that the development and application of alternative prediction models would improve forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Babecky & Jiri Podpiera, 2008. "Inflation Forecasts Errors in the Czech Republic: Evidence from a Panel of Institutions," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 6, pages 77-85, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation forecasts," Working Paper Series 151, European Central Bank.
    2. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    3. Filip Keereman, 1999. "The track record of the Commission forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 137, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. A. Espasa & E. Senra & R. Albacete, 2002. "Forecasting inflation in the European Monetary Union: A disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 402-421.
    5. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2005. "Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 255-261, December.
    6. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography," Working Paper Series 578, European Central Bank.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
    8. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-473, Sept.-Oct.
    9. Podpiera, Jiri­, 2008. "Monetary policy inertia reconsidered: Evidence from endogenous interest rate trajectory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 238-240, August.
    10. Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
    12. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    13. N. T. Valev & J. A. Carlson, 2003. "Sources of dispersion in consumer inflation forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 77-81.
    14. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Babecky & Philip Du Caju & Kamil Dybczak & Kamil Galuscak & Mary Keeney & Theodora Kosma & Martina Lawless & Julian Messina & Daphne Nicolitsas & Tairi Room & Frank Smets & Pawel Strzelecki & Mati, 2010. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Wage Adjustment in Europe," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 8, number rb08/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, January.
    2. Filip Novotný & Marie Raková, 2011. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 348-366, August.
    3. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky, January.
    4. Jose Peydro Alcalde & Sona Benecka & Alexis Derviz & Adam Gersl & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Narcisa Liliana Kadlcakova & Dorota Kowalczyk & Ivana Kubicova & Steven Ongena & Jakub Ry, 2012. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 10, number rb10/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, January.
    5. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky, January.
    6. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlavacek & Roman Horvath, 2008. "Prediction Bias and Undershooting of the Inflation Target," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 5, pages 57-76, Czech National Bank.
    7. Jaromir Baxa & Jiri Bohm & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Petr Kral & Magdalena Morgese Borys & Filip Rozsypal & Branislav Saxa & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Central Bank," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 9, number rb09/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, January.
    8. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlaváèek & Roman Horváth, 2008. "Do Central Bank Forecast Errors Contribute to the Missing of Inflation Targets? The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 434-453, December.
    9. Jaromir Baxa & Michal Franta & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Miroslav Plasil & Marek Rusnak & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Transmission of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 11, number rb11/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Evaluation of inflation forecasts; monetary policy; Czech Republic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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