IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Do Central Bank Forecast Errors Contribute to the Missing of Inflation Targets? The Case of the Czech Republic

This paper is primarily concerned with assessing the bias of the CNB’s predictions in relation to undershooting of the inflation target. We conclude that the inflation prediction error has decreased over time. We further point out that GDP growth and interest rates were, respectively, above and below the forecast most of the time, even in a situation of systematic undershooting of the target. Thus, the undershooting cannot be explained with the help of standard demand mechanisms. Positive supply impulses were admittedly underestimated in the past. According to our findings, about half of the apparent target undershooting in 2003 was due to errors in the predictions of exogenous factors (foreign interest rates, GDP, and inflation). As follows from the distribution of the inflation prediction errors across separate price segments, overpredictions of inflation during most of the period under review were due to mistakes in the prediction of food prices and core CPI ex food, while prediction errors in energy prices mostly fostered convergence to the target. The prediction errors in regulated prices acted in both directions.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 58 (2008)
Issue (Month): 09-10 (December)
Pages: 434-453

in new window

Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:58:y:2008:i:9-10:p:434-453
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague

Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

in new window

  1. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
  2. Zuzana Antonicova & Karel Musil & Lubos Ruzicka & Jan Vlcek, 2008. "Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts: A Historic Overview," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 7, pages 86-101 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlaváèek & Tomáš Holub, 2008. "Inflation Target Fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007: Some Stylized Facts," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 406-424, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:58:y:2008:i:9-10:p:434-453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.