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Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premium and Macroeconomic Volatilities in the UK

  • Renatas Kizys
  • Peter Spencer

This paper uses the exponential generalised heteroscedasticity model-in-mean (EGARCH- M) to analyse the relationship between the equity risk premium and macroeconomic volatility. This premium depends upon conditional volatility, which is significantly affected by the long bond yield, acting as a proxy for the underlying rate of inflation.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 07/13.

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Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:07/13
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Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom

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  1. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Chernov, Mikhail & Gallant, A. Ronald & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamic," Working Papers 02-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Vuolteenaho, Tuomo & Campbell, John, 2004. "Inflation Illusion and Stock Prices," Scholarly Articles 3196090, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
  7. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  8. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  10. Brandt, Michael W. & Wang, Kevin Q., 2003. "Time-varying risk aversion and unexpected inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1457-1498, October.
  11. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "The Declining Equity Premium: What Role Does Macroeconomic Risk Play?," 2004 Meeting Papers 644, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  13. Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Empirical Investigation of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1103, December.
  14. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Guéné, Stéphane, 2005. "Measuring market and inflation risk premia in France and in Germany," Working Paper Series 0436, European Central Bank.
  15. Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 187, Royal Economic Society.
  16. Gunter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Roland Straub, 2005. "Tax reform and labour market performance in the Euro area: a macroeconomic assessment," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Allan Timmermann & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1999. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp335, Financial Markets Group.
  18. repec:rus:hseeco:278548 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Shanken, Jay, 1990. "Intertemporal asset pricing : An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 99-120.
  20. Kalvinder Shields & Nilss Olekalns & Ãlan T. Henry & Chris Brooks, 2005. "Measuring the Response of Macroeconomic Uncertainty to Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 362-370, May.
  21. Robert J. Shiller & Andrea E. Beltratti, 1990. "Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Co-Movements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 953, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  22. Tobias Adrian & Joshua Rosenberg, 2008. "Stock Returns and Volatility: Pricing the Short-Run and Long-Run Components of Market Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2997-3030, December.
  23. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  24. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  25. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
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