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The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time

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  • Kizys, Renatas
  • Pierdzioch, Christian

Abstract

Building on the stochastic discount factor model, we estimated a multivariate exponential GARCH-in-mean model to analyze the link between the business cycle and the equity risk premium in the United States. In order to measure the business cycle, we used revised and real-time monthly data on industrial production for the period from 1965 to 2008. The main result of our empirical analysis is that estimates of the equity risk premium based on real-time macroeconomic data may significantly differ from estimates of the equity risk premium based on revised macroeconomic data.

Suggested Citation

  • Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:19:y:2010:i:4:p:711-722
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ching-Ping Wang & Hung-Hsi Huang & Yong-Wei Chen, 2012. "Investor SAD Sentiment and Stock Returns in Taiwan," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 40-57.
    2. Vázquez, Jesús & María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan M., 2012. "The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, pages 235-249.
    3. Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2013. "Financial crises, the decoupling–recoupling hypothesis, and the risk premium on the Greek stock index futures market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 166-173.
    4. Ching-Ping Wang & Hung-Hsi Huang & Yong-Wei Chen, 2012. "Investor SAD Sentiment and Stock Returns in Taiwan," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 40-57, July.
    5. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "A boosting approach to forecasting the volatility of gold-price fluctuations under flexible loss," Resources Policy, Elsevier, pages 95-107.

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