Quelques constats sur les prévisions conjoncturelles de la croissance française
We study the quality of the French growth forecasts from the first decade of the century. An optimism bias of the quarterly Consensus growth forecasts can be asserted right from a graphic analysis and its existence is confirmed by the calculation of the mean errors which are systematically negative. The Theil index reveals that Insee forecasts are superior to the Consensus ones. In addition, the Consensus forecasts are superior to a naïve forecast. Proper tests seem to confirm that an optimism bias exists ; this bias could arise from the combination of several forecasts. The study of the Consensus Economics fixed event forecasts regarding the next coming year requires a preliminary analysis due to missing data. We thus only retain the forecasts of nine institutions that we compare to those of the Government, the IMF, the OECD, and the European Commission. It appears that the forecasts are fairly close to the Consensus forecast and that the optimism bias is still observable. Finally, the disagreement between the forecasters increases towards a recession and, then, decreases.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00721673|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nordhaus, William D, 1987.
"Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-74, November.
- Jean-Michel Charpin, 2010. "Statistiques : les voies de la confiance," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 61(3), pages 371-393.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011.
"Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465.
- Dovern, Jonas & Weisser, Johannes, 2011. "Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 452-465, April.
- Jonas Dovern & Johannes Weisser, 2009. "Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An empirical Comparison for the G7," Jena Economic Research Papers 2009-091, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2009.
"Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries,"
Macroeconomics and Finance Series
200906, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
- Patton, Andrew J. & Timmermann, Allan, 2007.
"Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 884-918, October.
- Allan Timmermann & Andrew Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts under Asymmetric Loss and Nonlinearity," Working Papers wp04-05, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Dopke, Jorg & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2006. "When do forecasters disagree? An assessment of German growth and inflation forecast dispersion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 125-135.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
- Catherine Doz, 1993. "Note sur les tests de rationalité des prévisions," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 129-133.
- Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar & Prakash Loungani, 2006.
"How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 703-725.
- Isiklar, Gultekin & Lahiri, Kajal & Loungani, Prakash, 2006. "How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys," MPRA Paper 22065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marie Bessec, 2010.
"Étalonnages du taux de croissance du PIB français sur la base des enquêtes de conjoncture,"
Économie et Prévision,
Programme National Persée, vol. 193(2), pages 77-99.
- Bessec, Marie, 2010. "Etalonnages du taux de croissance du PIB français sur la base des enquêtes de conjoncture," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10077, Paris Dauphine University.
- Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 39, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Allan Timmermann, 2006.
"An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts,"
IMF Working Papers
06/59, International Monetary Fund.
- Allan Timmermann, 2007. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(1), pages 1-33, May.
- Ager, P. & Kappler, M. & Osterloh, S., 2009.
"The accuracy and efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A further application and extension of the pooled approach,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 167-181.
- Ager, Philipp & Kappler, Marcus & Osterloh, Steffen, 2007. "The Accuracy and Efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A Further Application and Extension of the Pooled Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-058, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000.
"To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data,"
200003, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Bonham, Carl S & Cohen, Richard H, 2001. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 278-91, July.
- Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2011.
"Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8194, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 1-17, June.
- Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00721673. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.