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Quelques constats sur les prévisions conjoncturelles de la croissance française

  • Thomas Jobert

    ()

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR7321 - Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis (UNS))

  • Lionel Persyn

    ()

    (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR7321 - Université de Nice Sophia Antipolis (UNS))

Nous étudions la qualité des prévisions de croissance pour la France réalisées durant la première décennie de ce siècle. Un biais d'optimisme des prévisions Consensus de la croissance trimestrielle apparaît dès l'examen graphique, et son existence est confirmée par le calcul des moyennes des erreurs de prévisions qui sont systématiquement négatives. L'indicateur de Theil montre que les prévisions de l'Insee dominent celles du Consensus qui obtiennent de meilleurs résultats qu'une prévision naïve (donnée par le dernier taux de croissance connu). Les tests semblent confirmer la présence d'un biais d'optimisme dans les prévisions trimestrielles, biais qui peut provenir dans le cas des prévisions Consensus de l'agrégation des prévisions collectées par le Consensus Economics. L'étude des prévisions de croissance pour l'année à venir faites par chaque organisme interrogé mensuellement par le Consensus Economics nécessite un traitement préalable à cause des données manquantes. Au final nous ne retenons que les prévisions de neuf institutions que nous comparons avec celles du gouvernement, du FMI, de l'OCDE, et de la Commission Européenne. Il apparait d'une part que les prévisions sont très proches de la prévision Consensus, et d'autre part que le biais d'optimisme reste présent. Enfin, le désaccord entre les institutions s'accroît à l'approche d'une phase de contraction et décroît après.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00721673.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00721673
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