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Improving the accuracy of consensus forecasts for the EURO area

Listed author(s):
  • Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu)

    ()

    (Faculty of Cybernetics, Statistics and Economic Informatics, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)

Starting from the predictions made by the Consensus Economics for the average percentage change in the previous year of the imports and exports of Euro Area for 2010 and 2011, some strategies to improve the forecasts accuracy were tested. The most accurate forecasts for 2010 were those based on ARIMA models for the mentioned indicators. An improvement of the forecasts accuracy for the average percentage of change in imports was registered for 2011 by combining the lowest and the highest predicted values of the experts using equally weighted (EW) scheme. Knowing the historical accuracy of Consensus forecasts and the best strategies to improve it, a better orientation could be done in the future decision-making of economic agents, especially central banks.

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File URL: http://reaser.eu/RePec/rse/wpaper/02_Bratu_Reaser4_p11-15.pdf
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Article provided by Pro Global Science Association in its journal Published in Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research.

Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (Decembre)
Pages: 11-15

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Handle: RePEc:rse:wpaper:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:11-15
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  1. Filip Novotný & Marie Raková, 2011. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 348-366, August.
  2. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  3. Capistrán, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
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