Improving the accuracy of consensus forecasts for the EURO area
Starting from the predictions made by the Consensus Economics for the average percentage change in the previous year of the imports and exports of Euro Area for 2010 and 2011, some strategies to improve the forecasts accuracy were tested. The most accurate forecasts for 2010 were those based on ARIMA models for the mentioned indicators. An improvement of the forecasts accuracy for the average percentage of change in imports was registered for 2011 by combining the lowest and the highest predicted values of the experts using equally weighted (EW) scheme. Knowing the historical accuracy of Consensus forecasts and the best strategies to improve it, a better orientation could be done in the future decision-making of economic agents, especially central banks.
Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (Decembre)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bucharest, 6th district, 47 Fabricii Street, Quadra Place, bl.J, fl.1, ap.12|
Web page: http://www.reaser.eu/pgsa/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Filip Novotný & Marie Raková, 2011.
"Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective,"
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver),
Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(4), pages 348-366, August.
- Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova, 2010. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Working Papers 2010/14, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Timmermann, Allan, 2006.
Handbook of Economic Forecasting,
- Timmermann, Allan G, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," Working Papers 2010-04, Banco de México.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," CREATES Research Papers 2010-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- CapistrÃ¡n, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009.
"Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
- Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecast Combination with Entry and Exit of Experts," Working Papers 2006-08, Banco de México.
- Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers 2008-55, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rse:wpaper:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:11-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Manuela Epure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.