How Good are the Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Slovenia?
This paper examines the quality of the macroeconomic forecasts of six institutions that regularly publish forecasts for Slovenia. The analysis focuses on an evaluation of the quality of forecasts for the real and nominal growth of GDP and for the average annual inflation rate for the period from 1997 to 2009. The quality of forecasts for selected macroeconomic variables was evaluated based on five groups of criteria: statistical measures of accuracy, comparison with the results of naive models, trace test, sign test and statistical tests of the unbiasedness and efficiency of forecasts. The results of the analysis do not provide an “absolute winner”, but they do indicate the features of particular forecasts. It is also clear that the developers of models have until now most likely given priority to reducing forecasting errors, while neglecting the congruence in the direction of trend between the forecast and the actual result. The latter criterion in particular is very important for effective economic policy making.
Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172|
Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Oller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000.
"The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-315.
- Öller, Lars-Erik & Barot, Bharat, 2000. "The Accuracy of European Growth and Inflation Forecasts," Working Paper 72, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997.
"Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 808-817, December.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1994. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," NBER Technical Working Papers 0167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages 167, 1996., University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," CARESS Working Papres 97-20, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss," Working Papers 97-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Josef Baumgartner, 2002. "Evaluation of Macro-economic Forecasts for Austria in the 1980s and 1990s," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 7(4), pages 191-206, December.
- Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1998. "Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-391, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:47-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.