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Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries


  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph


Using survey data from six Asian-Pacific countries, we report that professional forecasters apply the wage Phillips curve, the price Phillips curve, and Okun's law when forecasting macroeconomic variables. This result is robust when using time-varying coefficients, different forecast horizons and when taking business-cycle asymmetries into account. The results also suggest that the confidence in macroeconomic relationships was more pronounced during the economic crisis 2007–2009 and when looking at longer forecast horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Do professional forecasters apply the Phillips curve and Okun's law? Evidence from six Asian-Pacific countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 317-324.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:4:p:317-324 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.05.002

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," KOF Working papers 13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

    More about this item


    Okun's law; Phillips curve; Asian-Pacific countries; Professional forecasters;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets


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