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Do Euro Area Forecasters (Still) Have Faith in Macroeconomic Building Blocks? – Expectation Formation when Economics is in Crisis

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  • Ralf Fendel
  • Eliza M. Lis
  • Jan-Christoph Rülke

    ()

Abstract

We use the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecaster to show that euro area expectations are consistent with standard macroeconomic building blocks such as the Phillips curve, Okun's law, and the Taylor rule. Moreover, the paper finds that the financial and economic crisis of 2007-2009 did not change the expectation formation process as professional forecasters still adopt macroeconomic building blocks for their forecast. The scepticism that has recently been raised concerning macroeconomic building blocks has apparently not yet affected professional forecasts. On the contrary, we conclude that professional forecasters still have faith in macroeconomic building blocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Fendel & Eliza M. Lis & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2009. "Do Euro Area Forecasters (Still) Have Faith in Macroeconomic Building Blocks? – Expectation Formation when Economics is in Crisis," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 09-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:whu:wpaper:09-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic Models; Forecasting; Euro Area;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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