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'Ex-ante' Taylor rules - Newly discovered evidence from the G7 countries

Listed author(s):
  • Ralf Fendel
  • Michael Frenkel
  • Jan-Christoph Rülke
Registered author(s):

    This paper addresses the question whether financial market participants apply the framework of Taylor-type rules in their forecasts for the G7 countries. Therefore, we use the Consensus Economic Forecast poll providing us a unique data set of inflation, interest and growth rate forecasts for the time period 1989 - 2007. We provide evidence that Taylor-type rules frameworks are present in forecasts of financial markets. Thus, the paper, uses ex-ante data for the estimation of Taylor rules. This is novel, since so far only ex-post (revised) or real-time data have been applied.

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    File URL: https://www.whu.edu/fileadmin/data/RePEc/PDF/WP-08-03.pdf
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    Paper provided by WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management in its series WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group with number 08-03.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Aug 2008
    Publication status: Published Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 33, Issue 2, June 2011, Pages 224–232
    Handle: RePEc:whu:wpaper:08-03
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    Web page: https://www.whu.edu/en/faculty-research/economics-group/

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "A Rehabilitation of Monetary Policy in the 1950's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 121-127, May.
    4. Beck, Roland, 2001. "Do country fundamentals explain emerging market bond spreads?," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
    6. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography," Discussion Papers 2006/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Joel T. Krueger & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "The Fed funds futures rate as a predictor of federal reserve policy," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(8), pages 865-879, December.
    8. Michael M. Hutchison & Frank Westermann (ed.), 2006. "Japan's Great Stagnation: Financial and Monetary Policy Lessons for Advanced Economies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9780262083478, January.
    9. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    10. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Geography or skills: What explains Fed watchers’ forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?," Working Paper Series 695, European Central Bank.
    11. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    12. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    14. Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Hüfner, Felix P., 2004. "Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,40, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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