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Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts

  • Ullrich Heilemann

    (Univeristy of Leipzig)

  • Herman Stekler

    (Department of Economics The George Washington University)

Over the past 50 or so years, I have been concerned with the quality of economic forecasts and have written both about the procedures for evaluating these predictions and the results that were obtained from these evaluations. In this paper I provide some perspectives on the issues involved in judging the quality of these forecasts. These include the reasons for evaluating forecasts, the questions that have been asked in these evaluations, the statistical tools that have been used, and the generally accepted results. (I do also present some new material that has not yet been published.) I do this in two parts: first focusing on short-run GDP and inflation predictions and then turning to labor market forecasts.

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File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2010-002.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Paper provided by The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting in its series Working Papers with number 2010-002.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2010-002
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  3. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman O. Stekler, 2010. "Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved?," Working Papers 2010-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting, revised Feb 2012.
  4. Leitch, Gordon & Tanner, J Ernest, 1991. "Economic Forecast Evaluation: Profits versus the Conventional Error Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 580-90, June.
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  20. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 262, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 05 Oct 1998.
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