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Anchors for Inflation Expectations

Author Info

  • Maria Demertzis
  • Massimiliano Marcellino
  • Nicola Viegi

Abstract

We identify credible monetary policy with first, a disconnect between inflation and inflation expectations and second, the anchoring of the latter at the inflation target announced by the monetary authorities. We test empirically whether this is the case for a number of countries that have an explicit inflation target and therefore include the Euro Area. We find that for the last 10 year period, the two series are less dependent on each other and that announcing inflation targets help anchor expectations at the right level.

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File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/229%20Anchors%20for%20Inflation%20Expectations_tcm46-225545.pdf
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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 229.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:229
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Keywords: Inflation Targets; measures of Credibility.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  1. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Stefania Albanesi & V.V.Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2002. "Expectation traps and monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-02-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2006. "The danger of inflating expectations of macroeconomic stability: heuristic switching in an overlapping generations monetary model," Bank of England working papers 303, Bank of England.
  4. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Levin, Andrew & Swanson, Eric T, 2006. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Long-Term Bond Yields in the US, UK and Sweden," CEPR Discussion Papers 5808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Inflation Targeting: a Framework for Communication," Working Papers 71, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  6. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2005. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," Working Papers 02, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  8. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-21, November.
  9. Antonio Fatas & Ilian Mihov & Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 10846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Demertzis Maria & Marcellino Massimiliano & Viegi Nicola, 2012. "A Credibility Proxy: Tracking US Monetary Developments," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, June.
  12. Dean Croushore & Ronald S. Koot, 1991. "A measure of Federal Reserve credibility," Working Papers 91-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  13. Eyal Argov & David Rose & Philippe D Karam & Natan P. Epstein & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 07/207, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80.
  15. Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 1, pages 001-022 Central Bank of Chile.
  16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 2000. "The expectations trap hypothesis," Working Paper 0004, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  17. Patrick Perrier & Robert Amano, 2000. "Credibility and Monetary Policy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2000(Spring), pages 11-17.
  18. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "Expectations, learning and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1807-1808, November.
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Cited by:

  1. Serkan Cicek & Cuneyt Akar, 2014. "Do Inflation Expectations Converge Toward Inflation Target or Actual Inflation? Evidence from Expectation Gap Persistence," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(1), pages 15-21.
  2. Reyna Vergara González & Elías Eduardo Gutiérrez Alva, 2014. "Evaluación del cumplimiento de los objetivos de inflación y el papel de las expectativas: evidencia para México, 1995-2012," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 1-32, November.
  3. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2013. "Do inflation targets anchor inflation expectations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 214-223.

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