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How Anchored Are Inflation Expectations in EMU Countries?

  • Carin van der Cruijsen
  • Maria Demertzis

Anchored inflation expectations help stabilize inflation. Previous results indicate that monetary policy has been effective in breaking the link between actual and expected inflation at the euro area level. In this paper we examine whether this is also true at the national level. We define the �disconnect' between inflation and inflation expectations and then proceed to examine the extent to which this disconnect exists for a number of euro area countries. Our findings suggest that country-specific inflation experiences still affect national inflation expectations, and certainly more by comparison to the aggregate euro area level. EMU has therefore not made this link disappear at the national level.

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File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/235%20-%20How%20Anchored%20Are%20Inflation%20Expectations%20in%20EMU%20countries_tcm46-227926.pdf
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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 235.

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Date of creation: Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:235
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Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

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  1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "Expectations, learning and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1807-1808, November.
  2. Huchet, Marilyne, 2003. "Does single monetary policy have asymmetric real effects in EMU?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 151-178, February.
  3. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2005. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 52, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2007. "Inflation Targeting - a Framework for Communication," DNB Working Papers 149, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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  8. Demertzis Maria & Marcellino Massimiliano & Viegi Nicola, 2012. "A Credibility Proxy: Tracking US Monetary Developments," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, June.
  9. Rogers, John H., 2007. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: How close is Europe to the USA?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 785-796, April.
  10. Guenter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "Regional inflation dynamics within and across euro area countries and a comparison with the United States," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 141-184, 01.
  11. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hallett & Ole Rummel, 2000. "Is the European union a natural currency area, or is it held together by policy makers?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(4), pages 657-679, December.
  12. repec:eui:euiwps:eco2010/10 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Allington, Nigel FB & Kattuman, Paul A & Waldmann, Florian A, 2005. "One Market, One Money, One Price?," MPRA Paper 835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2006. "The danger of inflating expectations of macroeconomic stability: heuristic switching in an overlapping generations monetary model," Bank of England working papers 303, Bank of England.
  15. Riemer P. Faber & Ad C. J. Stokman, 2009. "A Short History of Price Level Convergence in Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 461-477, 03.
  16. Nigel F.B. Allington & Paul A. Kattuman & Florian A. Waldmann, 2005. "One Market, One Money, One Price?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
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