Testing for contemporary fiscal policy discretion with real time data
We propose a method for indentifying discretionary fiscal policy with real time data. The starting point is the observation that automatic stabilizers should depend on true GDP, while discretionary fiscal policy depends on the information that policy makers have in real time. We approximate the information set of policy makers with GDP data released in real time. True GDP is approximated using the last GDP release. Accordingly, we can compute a real time measurement error. Discretionary fiscal policy can be expected to react to this measurement error, whereas automatic fiscal policy will not. We apply this identification approach in order to test the central identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti's (2002) seminal structural VAR. According to this assumption, fiscal policy makers do not react to GDP evolutions contemporaneously in a discretionary fashion. We find that government expenditure is adjusted upward if GDP in real time is lower than true GDP. This suggests that fiscal policy makers can use short-term funds to buy goods and services in response to GDP updates. Our results therefore call the identifying assumption of Blanchard and Perotti's (2002) SVAR into question.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998.
"Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases,"
NBER Working Papers
6737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
- Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases," Working Paper Series WP-98-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Alan J. Auerbach, 2002.
"Is there a role for discretionary fiscal policy?,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 109-150.
- Jörn Tenhofen & Guntram B. Wolff & Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk, 2010.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis,"
Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik),
Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
- Wolff, Guntram B. & Tenhofen, Jörn & Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H., 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Germany: a disaggregated SVAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,41, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Roberto Perotti, 2005.
"Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998.
"Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
- Valerie A. Ramey & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1999. "Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending," NBER Working Papers 6283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999.
"An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,"
NBER Working Papers
7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
- Olivier Biau & Élie Girard, 2005. "Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France. L'approche var structurel," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 755-764.
- John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
- Raffaela Giordano & Sandro Momigliano & Stefano Neri & Roberto Perotti, 2008.
"The effetcs of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
656, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:6145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.