IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mcb/jmoncb/v23y1991i3p580-604.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Sustainability of Budget Deficits with Lump-Sum and with Income-Based Taxation

Author

Listed:
  • Bohn, Henning

Abstract

The paper examines the substantiality of fiscal policies in a stochastic economy with a particular focus on two benchmark policies, balanced budgets and tax smoothing. These policies are typically sustainable if lump-sum taxes are available, but they are generally not sustainable in a stochastic environment, if taxation is constrained by the size of the economy. The sustainability problems arise because the debt-income ratio becomes excessive whenever there are sufficiently low realizations of aggregate income. I also compute the probability of reaching high debt-income ratios with different policies and I discuss the role of debt management for sustainability. It turns out that balanced budgets can be sustained forever with very high probability (but less than one), but so can policies with permanent primary or with-interest deficits. I argue that debt management is important for sustainability in a stochastic environment and show that the use state-contingent government liabilities can be helpful in designing sustainable versions of tax-smoothing and balanced budget policies.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Bohn, Henning, 1991. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits with Lump-Sum and with Income-Based Taxation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 580-604, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:23:y:1991:i:3:p:580-604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-2879%28199108%2923%3A3%3C580%3ATSOBDW%3E2.0.CO%3B2-0&origin=bc
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
    2. King, Mervyn A. & Fullerton, Don, 2010. "The Taxation of Income from Capital," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 0, number 9780226436319.
    3. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 1996. "Life-Cycle Economies and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 465-489.
    4. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-751, May.
    5. Finn E. Kydland, 1989. "The role of money in a business cycle model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 23, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1988. "Real Business Cycle Models," NBER Working Papers 2480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-748, September.
    9. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1991. "Real business-cycle theory : Wisdom or whimsy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 607-626, October.
    10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    11. Martin Feldstein, 1982. "Inflation, Capital Taxation, and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 153-168 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 430-450.
    13. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
    14. John A. Tatom, 1985. "Federal income tax reform in 1985: indexation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb, pages 5-12.
    15. Martin Feldstein & Lawrence Summers, 1983. "Inflation and the Taxation of Capital Income in the Corporate Sector," NBER Chapters,in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 116-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Martin Feldstein, 1982. "Capital Taxation," NBER Working Papers 0877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Chan G. Huh, 1990. "Output, money and price correlations in a real business cycle model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 90-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Some skeptical observations on real business cycle theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 23-27.
    19. David E. Altig & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1991. "Bracket creep in the age of indexing: have we solved the problem?," Working Paper 9108, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    20. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-275, May.
    21. Alan J. Auerbach, 1983. "Corporate Taxation in the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(2), pages 451-514.
    22. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
    23. Cogley, T., 1990. "Spurious Business Cycle Phenomena In Hp Filered Time Series," Working Papers 90-21, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    24. Hansen, Gary D., 1997. "Technical progress and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1005-1023, June.
    25. Laitner, John, 1990. "Tax Changes and Phase Diagrams for an Overlapping Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(1), pages 193-220, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lloyd-Ellis, Huw & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2001. "Fiscal shocks and fiscal risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 309-338.
    2. Viviane Luporini, 1999. "Federal domestic debt in Brazil: 1981-1996," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td128, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    3. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
    4. Atrayee Ghosh Roy & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2009. "Budget deficits and U.S. economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3015-3030.
    5. Ball, Laurence & Elmendorf, Douglas W & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1998. "The Deficit Gamble," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 699-720, November.
    6. Bodo HERZOG, "undated". "European Monetary Union and Fiscal Policy Sustainability," EcoMod2004 330600067, EcoMod.
    7. Barbie, Martin & Hagedorn, Marcus & Kaul, Ashok, 2001. "Government Debt as Insurance against Macroeconomic Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 412, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Hosono, Kaoru, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 434-446.
    9. Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M., 1995. "Consumption, external assets and the real interest rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 471-494.
    10. Togo, Eriko, 2007. "Coordinating public debt management with fiscal and monetary policies : an analytical framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4369, The World Bank.
    11. António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Christian Schoder, 2014. "The fundamentals of sovereign debt sustainability: evidence from 15 OECD countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 247-271, May.
    13. Cuddington, John T., 1997. "Analyzing the sustainability of fiscal deficitsin developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1784, The World Bank.
    14. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1465, European Central Bank.
    15. Green, Christopher J. & Holmes, Mark J. & Kowalski, Tadeusz, 2001. "Poland: a successful transition to budget sustainability?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 161-183, June.
    16. Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1997. "Soutenabilité des déficits et ajustements budgétaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 371-395.
    17. Mário Jorge Cardoso de Mendonça & Cláudio Hamilton Matos dos Santos, 2008. "Revisitando a Função de Reação Fiscal no Brasil Pós-Real: Uma Abordagem de Mudanças de Regime," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807171729460, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Viviane Luporini, 2001. "The behavior of the Brazilian federal domestic debt," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td161, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    19. Viviane Luporini, 2000. "Further investigation into the sustainability of the brazilian federal domestic debt," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td131, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    20. Cláudio Hamilton dos Santos & Márcio Bruno Ribeiro & Sérgio Wulff Gobetti, 2008. "A Evolução da Carga Tributária Bruta Brasileira no Período 1995-2007: Tamanho, Composição e Especificações Econométricas Agregadas," Discussion Papers 1350, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    21. Viviane Luporini, 1999. "Sustainability of the Brazilian fiscal policy and central bank independence," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td125, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:23:y:1991:i:3:p:580-604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.