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The Long-run Effects of the Italian Pension Reforms

  • Nicola Sartor

The paper analysesthe reforms of the Italian mandatory pension scheme for employeeslegislated in the 1990s. To assess the effects of the reforms,a microsimulation model calibrated on cross-section data is developed.The model is aimed at estimating the average income of a memberof a cohort, as well as the average per capita income of allindividuals alive in a given year. The long-run effects of thereform are analysed, comparing the characteristics of alternativefinancing schemes. A substantial improvement of the equity aswell as the long-run sustainability of the Italian public pensionschemes emerges. However, the dreary demographic scenario callsfor further tightening of eligibility rules sometime in the nextdecades if long-run sustainability of public debt is to be achieved.On the basis of sensitivity analysis, some changes aimed at hedgingthe system against unexpected shocks are suggested. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1008745617309
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Article provided by Springer in its journal International Tax and Public Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 83-111

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Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:8:y:2001:i:1:p:83-111
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  1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts - A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Working Papers 3589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Daniele Franco & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Luigi Guiso & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Nicola Sartor, 1992. "Generational accounting: the case of Italy," Working Paper 9208, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Auerbach, Alan J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Leibfritz, Willi (ed.), 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226032139.
  4. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1998. "An International Comparison of Generational Accounts," NBER Working Papers 6447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ando,Albert & Guiso,Luigi & Visco,Ignazio (ed.), 1994. "Saving and the Accumulation of Wealth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521452083.
  6. Alan Auerbach & Bruce Baker & Laurence Kotlikoff & Jan Walliser, 1997. "Generational Accounting in New Zealand: Is There Generational Balance?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 201-228, May.
  7. Sartor, Nicola, 1993. "On the Role of Budgetary Policy during Demographic Changes," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(Supplemen), pages 217-27.
  8. Nicola Sartor & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounts for Italy," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 299-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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