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A fiskális jelzőszámok új megközelítésben
[A new approach to fiscal index numbers]

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  • P. Kiss, Gábor

Abstract

A tanulmány megállapítása, hogy az átmeneti gazdaságok esetében a hagyományos fiskális jelzőszámok közvetlenül nem adaptálhatók, hiszen feltételezéseik az átmenet időszakában gyakran nem teljesülnek, és általában hiányoznak a stabil összefüggések. A gazdasági környezet sajátosságait figyelembe vevő mutatók előállításához a standardizált módszerek helyett alternatív megoldásokat kell keresni. A valóságos közgazdasági tartalom megközelítése érdekében az első lépés - a statisztikai adatok jól körülhatárolt korrekciójával - az egyes országok sajátosságait tükröző fiskális alapmutató előállítása. Másrészt szükség van bizonyos gazdasági összefüggések számszerűsítésére is, ami az átmenet és a felzárkózás időszakában nem egyszerű feladat. A ciklus hatásának pontosabb kiszűréséhez ráadásul a hosszú távú (potenciális) növekedési ütem meghatározása sem elégséges, a ciklus szűrésének általános problémái ebben az időszakban fokozott mértékben jelentkezhetnek. A tanulmányban ezért definiálunk egy új jelzőszámot: az úgynevezett adóalaprés-mutatót, amely a szűrés során az egyes adóalapok saját hosszú távú dinamikájából indul ki, valamint ennek inflációt is kiszűrő változatát: az úgynevezett kiegészített adóalaprés-mutatót. A fenntarthatóság legmegfelelőbbnek ítélhető szintetikus jelzőszámaként bevezetjük a középtávú elsődlegesrés-mutatót, ami a nettó vagyonból indul ki, és ami kiegészíthető a generációs elszámolásokból adódó hosszabb távú kiadási és bevételi adottságokkal is.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Kiss, Gábor, 2002. "A fiskális jelzőszámok új megközelítésben [A new approach to fiscal index numbers]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 292-319.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:483
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. P. Kiss, Gábor & Vadas, Gábor, 2005. "Légy résen! Az államháztartási egyenleg ciklikus igazítása [Be on your guard! Cyclically adjusted budget deficit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 109-129.
    2. Gábor P. Kiss, 2011. "Moving target indication: Fiscal indicators employed by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank," MNB Occasional Papers 2011/92, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Kotosz, Balázs, 2006. "Megszorítások és lazítások - a rendszerváltás fiskális politikájának szerkezetéről [Tightening and loosening - on the structure of the fiscal policy of systemic change]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 158-174.

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    JEL classification:

    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General

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