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The impact of the budget deficit on the currency and inflation in the transition economies

Author

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  • Petraq Milo

    () (Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister of Albania Member of the Supervisory Board of the Bank of Albania)

Abstract

This article investigates the causal linkage between budget deficit, monetary mass and inflation in the transition economies. It is focused on the impact of public expenditures growth on money supply growth, and it does not take in account the amount of budget deficit. We test the new hypothesis that inflation is primarily attributable to public finances imbalances. In our model, the money supply growth is function of budget deficit and GDP growth rate; and inflation is a function of money supply growth and budget deficits. We find a positive relationship between monetary financing of government deficits and money base growth in the case of Albania, Bulgaria, and Romania; public finance imbalances are the main cause of money creation and inflation in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Petraq Milo, 2012. "The impact of the budget deficit on the currency and inflation in the transition economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(1), pages 25-57.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbk:journl:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:25-57
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    File URL: http://www.cbcg.me/repec/cbk/journl/vol1no1-2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blejer, Mario I. & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1988. "High inflation, heterodox stabilization, and fiscal policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 867-881, August.
    2. Giannaros, Demetrios S. & Kolluri, Bharat R., 1985. "Deficit spending, money, and inflation: Some international empirical evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 401-417.
    3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Stopping hyperinflations past and present," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 122(1), pages 1-47, March.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-135, February.
    5. Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Empirical Analysis of High-Inflation Episodes in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 527-549, September.
    6. Vito Tanzi, 1993. "The Budget Deficit in Transition: A Cautionary Note," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 697-707, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khieu Van, Hoang, 2014. "Budget deficit, money growth and inflation: Empirical evidence from Vietnam," MPRA Paper 54488, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Feb 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public finance; Budget deficit; Exchange rate; Inflation; Transition economies;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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