Budget deficit, money growth and inflation: Empirical evidence from Vietnam
This study empirically examines the nexus among budget deficit, money supply and inflation by using a monthly data set from January 1995 to December 2012 and a SVAR model with five endogenous variables, inflation, money growth, budget deficit growth, real GDP growth and interest rate. Since real GDP and budget deficit are unavailable on the monthly basis, we interpolate those series using Chow and Lin’s (1971) annualized approach from their annual series. Overall, we found that money growth has positive effects on inflation while budget deficit growth has no impact on money growth and therefore inflation. In addition, budget deficit is autonomous from shocks to other variables. The estimation results also reveal that the State Bank of Vietnam implemented tightening monetary policy in response to positive shocks to inflation by reducing money growth but the response was relatively slow because it took three months for the monetary authority to fully react to such shocks. Finally, interest rate was not an effective instrument for fighting inflation but it was significantly and positively influenced by inflation.
|Date of creation:||31 Jan 2014|
|Date of revision:||12 Feb 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bradley, Michael D., 1984. "Federal deficits and the conduct of monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 411-431.
- Ashra, Sunil & Chattopadhyay, Saumen & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2004. "Deficit, money and price: the Indian experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 289-299, April.
- Allen, Stuart D. & Smith, Michael D., 1983. "Government borrowing and monetary accommodation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 605-616, November.
- De Haan, Jakob & Zelhorst, Dick, 1990. "The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 455-469, December.
- Luis CatÃ£o & Marco Terrones, 2003.
"Fiscal Deficits and Inflation,"
IMF Working Papers
03/65, International Monetary Fund.
- Burdekin, Richard C. K. & Wohar, Mark E., 1990. "Monetary institutions, budget deficits and inflation : Empirical results for eight countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 531-551.
- Barnhart, Scott W. & Darrat, Ali F., 1988. "Budget deficits, money growth and causality: Further OECD evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-242, June.
- Petraq Milo, 2012. "The impact of the budget deficit on the currency and inflation in the transition economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(1), pages 25-57.
- Oludele Akinloye Akinboade & Franz Krige Siebrits & Elizabeth Wambach Niedermeier, 2004. "The determinants of inflation in South Africa: An econometric analysis," Research Papers RP_143, African Economic Research Consortium.
- Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.
- Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971.
"Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
- Tom Doan, . "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:54488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.