The Link Between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: Do public sector wages matter?
This paper investigates the validity of the hypothesis that suggests there is a link between fiscal deficits and inflation in developing countries and further explores this link in the absence of public sector wage expenditure. Sri Lanka, a developing country with a persistent fiscal deficit, a large public sector and increasing inflation, has been chosen for the empirical study. An auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is employed in the analysis, using annual data from 1959 to 2008. The results suggest that, in the long run, a one percentage point increase in the ratio of the fiscal deficit to narrow money is associated with about an 11 percentage point increase in inflation. This link becomes weaker in the absence of the public sector wage expenditure. The overall inference is that inflation is not only a monetary phenomenon in Sri Lanka and public sector wage expenditure is a key factor in explaining the deficit-inflation relationship.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/asarc/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bennett T. McCallum, .
"Is The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?,"
GSIA Working Papers
2003-24, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Bennett T. Mccallum, 2003. "Is The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 634-649, November.
- Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Is the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?," NBER Working Papers 9961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1990.
"Explaining Fiscal Policies and Inflation in Developing Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
3493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1991. "Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S16-S48, March.
- McMillin, W. Douglas & Beard, Thomas R., 1982. "Deficits, money and inflation : Comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 273-277.
- George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 1997. "Are budget deficits inflationary? A cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 493-496.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
- Jha, Raghbendra, 2001.
"Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries,"
Working Paper Series
UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Jha, Raghbendra, 2001. "Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," Departmental Working Papers 2001-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Ashima Goyal, .
"Inflationary Pressures in South Asia,"
MPDD Working Paper Series
WP/11/14, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
- Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
- Ahking, Francis W. & Miller, Stephen M., 1985. "The relationship between government deficits, money growthm and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 447-467.
- Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont, 2002.
"Modern Hyper- and High Inflations,"
IMF Working Papers
02/197, International Monetary Fund.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tom Doan, . "ZIVOT: RATS procedure to perform Zivot-Andrews Unit Root Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00236, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-87, August.
- Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
- David Romer, 1991.
"Openness and inflation: theory and evidence,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Blejer, Mario I & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1644-78, December.
- Sen, Amit, 2003. "On Unit-Root Tests When the Alternative Is a Trend-Break Stationary Process," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 174-84, January.
- Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Economic and political determinants of budget deficits in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S49-S72, March.
- Buffie, Edward F, 1999. "Public Sector Wage Cycles and the Co-movement of the Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Less-Developed Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(4), pages 785-810, November.
- Herschel I. Grossman, 1982. "The American Fiscal Deficit: Facts and Effects," NBER Working Papers 0934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, March.
- Sowa, Nii Kwaku, 1994. "Fiscal deficits, output growth and inflation targets in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(8), pages 1105-1117, August.
- Landon, Stuart & Reid, Bradford G, 1990. "Government Deficits and Money Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 382-89, August.
- Abbas Alavirad & Sanhita Athawale, 2005. "The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 37-49, 03.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark Strazicich, 2001. "Testing the null of stationarity in the presence of a structural break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-382.
- Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-22, October.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997.
"Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LPUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lumsdaine-Papell unit root test with structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00110, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
- Mohammad Aslam Chaudhary & Naved Ahmad, 1995. "Money Supply, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 945-956.
- Niskanen, William A., 1978. "Deficits, government spending, and inflation : What is the evidence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 591-602, August.
- Hamburger, Michael J. & Zwick, Burton, 1981. "Deficits, money and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 141-150.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pas:asarcc:2012-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephanie Hancock)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.