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Inflationary pressures in South Asia

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  • Ashima Goyal

    () (Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India)

Abstract

The similarities yet differences across South Asian countries, and their differential response to recent food and oil price shocks, provides a useful opportunity to better understand the structure of inflation in these economies. Analysis of the internal goods market and external balance of payments equilibrium and evidence on demand and supply shocks suggests that output is largely demand determined but inefficiencies on the supply side perpetuate inflation. Pro-cyclical policy amplifies the negative impact of supply shocks on output. Inflation surges are reduced at high output cost while propagation mechanisms and well-intentioned administrative interventions turn relative price shocks into chronic cost-push inflation. The analysis brings out the importance of food prices for the inflationary process. It is necessary to protect the poor from inflation and especially food inflation. But this must be done effectively. The paper concludes with an analysis of effective short- and long-run policy options.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal, 2010. "Inflationary pressures in South Asia," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 17(2), pages 1-42, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:unt:jnapdj:v:17:y:2010:i:2:p:1-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425.
    2. Ashima Goyal, 2010. "Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic performance in South Asia," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2010-005, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "The Natural Interest Rate In Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: New And Enduring Themes In Development Economics, chapter 15, pages 333-368 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Goyal, Ashima & Pujari, Ayan Kumar, 2005. "Identifying long run supply curve of India," MPRA Paper 24021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ashima Goyal, 2005. "Incentives from exchange rate regimes in an institutional context," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2005-002, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    6. W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, August.
    7. T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, March.
    8. Goyal, Ashima, 2003. "Agriculture and Industry: enhancing mutual gains," MPRA Paper 67107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ashima Goyal, 2014. "History of Monetary Policy in India Since Independence," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-81-322-1961-3, August.
    2. Ashima Goyal, 2014. "Purchasing Power Parity, Wages and Inflation in Emerging Markets," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 49(4), pages 327-347, November.
    3. Hemantha K.J. Ekanayake, 2012. "The Link Between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: Do public sector wages matter?," ASARC Working Papers 2012-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    4. Goyal, Ashima, 2012. "Propagation Mechanisms in Inflation: Governance as key," MPRA Paper 46360, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West (ed.), 2012. "Regional Cooperation for Inclusive and Sustainable Development: South and South-West Asia Development Report 2012-2013," SSWA Books and Research Reports, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) South and South-West Asia Office, number brr4.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; South Asia; food price policy; demand and supply shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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