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History of monetary policy in India since independence

Author

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  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

An SIIO paradigm, based on structure and ideas that become engraved in institutions and affect outcomes, is developed to examine and assesses monetary policy in India after independence. Narrative history, data analysis, and reporting of research demonstrate the dialectic between ideas and structure. Exogenous supply shocks are used to identify policy shocks and isolate their effects. It turns out policy was sometimes exceedingly tight when the common understanding was of a large monetary overhang. Fiscal dominance made policy procyclical. But the three factors that cause a loss of monetary autonomy-governments, markets and openness-are moderating each other. Markets moderate fiscal profligacy and global crises moderate markets and openness. Greater current congruence between ideas and structure is improving institutions and contributing to India's better performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal, 2011. "History of monetary policy in India since independence," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2011-018, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2011-018
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    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2011-018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    2. Goyal, Ashima, 2011. "A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1392-1404, May.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Goyal, Ashima & Pujari, Ayan Kumar, 2005. "Identifying long run supply curve of India," MPRA Paper 24021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ashima Goyal, 2010. "Inflationary pressures in South Asia," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 17(2), pages 1-42, December.
    6. Ashima Goyal, 2005. "Incentives from exchange rate regimes in an institutional context," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2005-002, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    7. Ashima Goyal, 2007. "Tradeoffs, Delegation and Fiscal-Monetary Coordination in a Developing Economy," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 141-164, December.
    8. Goyal, Ashima, 2002. "Coordinating monetary and fiscal policies: a role for rules?," MPRA Paper 29200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Goyal, Ashima, 2006. "Macroeconomic policy and the exchange rate: working together?," MPRA Paper 27768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Forex Markets and Feedback Under Uncertainity in an Opening Economy," Working Papers id:2208, eSocialSciences.
    11. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    12. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "Financial crises: reducing pro-cyclicality," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 173-183.
    13. Goyal, Ashima & Dash, Shridhar, 2000. "The Money Supply Process in India: Identification, Analysis and Estimation," MPRA Paper 24632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Reddy, Y. V., 2002. "Lectures on Economic and Financial Sector Reforms in India," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195661743.
    15. N. Jayaram & Surendra K. Gupta & A.P. Barnabas & Sachchidananda & P.S. Pachauri & M.L. Khattar & B.N. Sampath & H. R. Khanna, 1985. "India," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 41(1), pages 177-179, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jagjit Chadha & Young-Kwan Kang, 2016. "Finance and Credit in a Model of Monetary Policy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 471, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Sanchit Arora, 2018. "Regime-switching monetary and fiscal policy rules and their interaction: an Indian case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1573-1607, June.
    3. Ashima Goyal, 2013. "Sustaining growth: Interests versus institutions," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2013-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy history; Structure; Ideas; Institutions; Outcomes; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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