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Deriving India's Potential growth from theory and structure

Author

Listed:
  • Ashima Goyal

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Sanchit Arora

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

Estimates suggest that Indian aggregate supply is elastic but subject to upward shocks. If supply shocksmake a high persistent contribution to inflation, it implies second round pass through is occurring, implying growth has reached its potential. This measure of potential growth draws on both theory and the structure of the Indian economy. It turns out supply shocks largely explain inflation. Output reached potential only in the years 2007-08 when growth rates exceeded 9 percent. In the period 2010-11 there was no sustained excess of growth over potential. Inflation was due to multiple supply shocks, rather than second round effects. Estimated linear and Markov switching policy rules suggest there wasovercorrection in 2011.They show a two percent underestimate of potential output leads to a 50 basis point rise in policy rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2012. "Deriving India's Potential growth from theory and structure," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-018, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    • Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2012-018
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    File URL: http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2012-018.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Ashima Goyal & Arjun Singh, 2006. "Through a Glass Darkly - Deciphering the Impact of Oil Price Shocks," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22374, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Goyal, Ashima, 2011. "A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1392-1404, May.
    4. Ashima Goyal & Arjun Singh, 2007. "Through a Glass Darkly," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 139-166, April.
    5. Goyal, Ashima & Pujari, Ayan Kumar, 2005. "Identifying long run supply curve of India," MPRA Paper 24021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
    7. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    8. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2012. "Stability and policy rules in emerging markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-004, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    9. Mio, Hitoshi, 2002. "Identifying Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Components of Inflation Rate: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 33-56, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barendra Kumar Bhoi & Harendra Kumar Behera, 2017. "India’s Potential Output Revisited," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 101-120, March.
    2. Ashima Goyal, 2013. "Sustaining growth: Interests versus institutions," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2013-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2013. "Estimating the Indian natural interest rate and evaluating policy," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2013-017, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Nepal Rastra Bank, 2017. "Potential Output and Output Gap Estimates for Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 29(2), pages 1-14, October.
    5. Sharma, Saurabh & Behera, Harendra, 2022. "A dissection of Indian growth using a DSGE filter," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Goyal, Ashima, 2012. "Propagation Mechanisms in Inflation: Governance as key," MPRA Paper 46360, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Potential growth; demand and supply shocks; Markov switching policy rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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