Estimating the Indian natural interest rate and evaluating policy
We estimate the unobserved time-varying natural interest rate (NIR) and potential output for the Indian economy using the Kalman Filter. Estimation is a special challenge in an emerging market because of limited length of data series and ongoing structural change. A key result in the literature is the NIR is imprecisely estimated. Structural aspects of the economy used in our estimation turn out, however, to improve the precision of the NIR estimates, although potential output continues to be imprecisely estimated. Turning points are well captured and estimates obtained for the output gap elasticity of aggregate supply and the interest elasticity of aggregate demand.The estimated NIR is used as an indicator of the monetary policy stance, which is found to be broadly contractionary and procyclical for the period under study.
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- Ashima Goyal, 2008.
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"A General equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market,"
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers
2007-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
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- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the natural rate of interest," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 35, Society for Computational Economics.
- Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2012. "Deriving India's Potential growth from theory and structure," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-018, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
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