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Through a glass darkly: Deciphering the impact of oil price shocks

Author Info

  • Ashima Goyal

    ()

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

  • Arjun Singh

    ()

    (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

Abstract

In order to examine if the impact of oil price shocks depends on the structure of an economy, a vertical (VSC) and a horizontal (HSC) long-run supply curve identification are successively imposed on a three variable VAR with Indian time series data. While core inflation is measured with the VSC, the HSC requires a new concept of demand-driven inflation: Residual (demand) inflation, which gives the impact of short and medium run demand shocks on inflation. Core and residual inflation are both estimated. The data favors the HSC, but both identifications imply that policy demand squeeze aggravated international oil price shocks.

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Paper provided by Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India in its series Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers with number 2006-012.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2006-012
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Keywords: Oil Shocks; VAR; Identification strategies; Developing economy; Residual Inflation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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  1. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  3. Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-61, May.
  4. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
  5. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September.
  6. Goyal, Ashima & Pujari, Ayan Kumar, 2005. "Analysing Core Inflation in India: A Structural VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Scott Roger, 1998. "Core inflation: concepts, uses and measurement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  10. Owen F. Humpage & Eduard A. Pelz, 2002. "Do energy-price shocks affect core-price measures?," Working Paper 0215, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  11. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2000. "Identifying Domestic and Imported Core Inflation," IMF Working Papers 00/4, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1999. "Macroeconomics of Self-fulfilling Prophecies, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062038, December.
  13. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, 2001. "Identifying domestic and imported core inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(14), pages 1819-1831.
  14. Goyal, Ashima & Pujari, Ayan Kumar, 2005. "Identifying long run supply curve of India," MPRA Paper 24021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:

  1. Ashima Goyal & Sanchit Arora, 2012. "Deriving India's Potential growth from theory and structure," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-018, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.

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