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Estimating Core Inflation In Norway

Listed author(s):
  • Fabio DI DIO
  • Francesco FELICI

Central banks are continually considering the problem of how to identify which price changes should be considered permanent and which entirely temporary. Indeed, due to the delayed effect that monetary policy uses to put its choices into action, a wrong valuation of the type of inflation can prove extremely costly for the economy and does not produce the desired results. Since price indexes (as CPI) deliver a distorted picture of underlying inflation, it is necessary to devise a more appropriate target for monetary policy. The need to find a good measure for the latter variable becomes more marked when the central bank adopts price stability as the overriding aim of monetary policy. In this paper we apply the Quah and Vahey (1995) methodology to Norway, oil producing OECD country, and derive measures of core inflation by imposing restrictions from economic theory within the context of a multivariate econometric analysis. To estimate long-term movements of inflation, we present two models that enable the distinction between core and non-core inflation and also between domestic and imported inflation. We conclude that in all the models presented core inflation is a �prime mover� of inflation.

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Article provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.

Volume (Year): 4 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3(9)_Fall2009 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:3(9)_fall2009:72
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14

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  1. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, 2001. "Identifying domestic and imported core inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(14), pages 1819-1831.
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers," NBER Working Papers 5786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Fabio Bagliano & Roberto Golinelli & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-357.
  15. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, 1996. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks," Discussion Papers 174, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  16. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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  19. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  20. Landau, Bettina, 2000. "Core inflation rates: a comparison of methods based on west German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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