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A SVAR model for estimating core inflation in the Euro zone

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  • Mariano Matilla-Garcia

Abstract

A traditional role of central banks has been to protect the purchasing power of money by keeping a roof on inflation. Recently, several central banks have explicitly assumed an inflation control target. This is the case, among others, of the European Central Bank (ECB) whose monetary policy goal is to keep an annual inflation rate below 2% over a medium-term horizon (ECB, 2001). In practice, inflation is often measured in terms of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the headline inflation rate is not totally under the control of the ECB. In this study core inflation is measured by means of the structural VAR approach, in particular it is based on long-run restrictions over crucial macroeconomic variables: inflation, money and output. Core inflation is estimated and compared with the standard measured inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariano Matilla-Garcia, 2005. "A SVAR model for estimating core inflation in the Euro zone," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 149-154.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:3:p:149-154
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485042000307125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fabio Bagliano & Roberto Golinelli & Claudio Morana, 2002. "Core inflation in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 353-357.
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    6. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Papers 6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, April.
    10. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-1144, September.
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