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The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: A Two-Step Structural VAR Approach

Author

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  • PATRICK FÈVE
  • ALAIN GUAY

Abstract

The response of hours to a technology shock is a controversial issue in macroeconomics. Part of the difficulty lies in that the estimated response is sensitive to the specification of hours in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs). This paper uses a simple two-step approach to consistently estimate the response of hours. The first step considers a SVAR model with a relevant stationary variable, but excluding hours. Given a consistent estimate of technology shocks in the first step, the response of hours to this shock is estimated in a second step. Simulation experiments from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model show that this approach outperforms standard SVARs. When applied to U.S. data, the two-step approach predicts a short-run decrease followed by a hump-shaped positive response. This result is robust to other specifications and data. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University No claim to original US government works.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Fève & Alain Guay, 2009. "The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: A Two-Step Structural VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 987-1013, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:5:p:987-1013
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcos Sanso-Navarro, 2012. "Broken trend stationarity of hours worked," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3955-3964, October.
    2. Bolboaca Maria & Fischer Sarah, 2021. "Unraveling News: Reconciling Conflicting Evidence," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 695-743, June.
    3. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Tripier, Fabien, 2015. "Are Unit Root Tests Useful In The Debate Over The (Non)Stationarity Of Hours Worked?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 167-188, January.
    4. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & Zhan, Zhaoguo, 2016. "Robust inference in structural VARs with long-run restrictions," ESSEC Working Papers WP1702, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    5. Francesco Furlanetto & Martin Seneca, 2012. "Rule‐of‐Thumb Consumers, Productivity, and Hours," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 658-679, June.
    6. Christoph Gortz & Christopher Gunn & Thomas Lubik, 2022. "Split Personalities: The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks," Carleton Economic Papers 22-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    7. Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Tzu‐Yu Lin, 2019. "Do Exchange Rate Shocks Have Asymmetric Effects on Reserve Accumulation? Evidence from Emerging Markets," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(4), pages 1561-1586, October.
    8. Andrei Polbin & Sergey Drobyshevsky, 2014. "Developing a Dynamic Stochastic Model of General Equilibrium for the Russian Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 166P, pages 156-156.
    9. Rujin, Svetlana, 2024. "Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Fabrice Collard & Patrick Fève, 2012. "Sur les causes et les effets en macro économie : les Contributions de Sargent et Sims, Prix Nobel d'Economie 2011," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(3), pages 335-364.
    11. Rujin, Svetlana, 2019. "What are the effects of technology shocks on international labor markets?," Ruhr Economic Papers 806, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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