The Money Supply Process in India: Identification, Analysis and Estimation
A new specification is employed to test for the degree of endogeneity of commercial bank credit, and its response to structural variables relevant to the Indian context. Our specification allows us to both identify money supply in a single equation, and disentangle the contribution of the Central and the Commercial Banks to the money supply process. Bank credit reacted more to financial variables and had dissimilar responses to food and manufacturing prices and output. Instead of interest rates, sectoral returns played a major role. Monetary policy broadly succeeded in preventing an explosive growth in money supply and reined in inflationary expectations. But by targeting manufacturing prices it harmed real output. The estimated structure implies that it would be more efficient to target agricultural prices for inflation control. A monetary contraction should be completed earlier than in the past, and should coincide with a rise in food prices. Information available in the systematic structural features can be exploited in designing monetary policy.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Indian Economic Journal 1.48(2000): pp. 90 -102|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Goyal, A., 1994.
"Industrial Pricing and Growth Fluctuations in India,"
107, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research-.
- Ashima Goyal, 1994. "Industrial Pricing and Growth Fluctuations in India," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 13-32, January.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Goyal, Ashima, 1994.
"Growth dynamics in a general equilibrium macroeconomic model for India,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 265-289, June.
- Goyal, A., 1992. "Growth Dynamics : In a General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Model for India," Papers 69, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research-.
- Cooley, Thomas F & LeRoy, Stephen F, 1981. "Identification and Estimation of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 825-44, December.
- Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Competing Views Of The Money Supply Process: Theory And Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 67-88, 02.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24632. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.