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Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Time Series Econometrics: Evaluating the U.S. Market Impacts of High Soy Meal Prices

  • Babula, Ronald A.
  • Bessler, David A.
  • Reeder, John
  • Somwaru, Agapi

This paper demonstrates the application of a recently developed methodology, the combination of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with Bernanke structural vector autoregression (VAR) models, to model a system of U.S. commodity-related and value-added markets. As an example, the paper applies this methodology to a monthly system of three U.S. soy-based markets: the soybean market upstream and the two downstream markets for soy meal soy oil. Analyses of results from simulating the model's impulse response function and of forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market elasticity parameters that drive these markets, and updated policy-relevant information on how these monthly markets run and dynamically interact. Results suggest how a positive shock in U.S. soy meal price dynamically influences the soybean market upstream and the soy oil market further downstream.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15885
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Paper provided by United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries in its series Working Paper ID Series with number 15885.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ags:uitcoi:15885
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  1. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  2. Goodwin, Harold L., Jr. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Djunaidi, Harjanto, 2003. "Which Broiler Part is the Best Part?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(03), December.
  3. Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  5. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  6. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  7. Saghaian, Sayed H. & Hasan, Mohamad F. & Reed, Michael R., 2002. "Overshooting Of Agricultural Prices In Four Asian Economies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(01), April.
  8. Sneha Jonnala & Stephen Fuller & David Bessler, 2002. "A GARCH Approach to Modelling Ocean Grain Freight Rates," Maritime Economics and Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 103-125, June.
  9. Ronald A. Babula & Phil L. Colling & Gregory R. Gajewski, 1994. "Dynamic impacts of rising lumber prices on housing-related prices," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(5), pages 373-388.
  10. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January.
  11. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2004. "Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(01), April.
  12. David A. Bessler & Derya G. Akleman, 1998. "Farm Prices, Retail Prices, and Directed Graphs: Results for Pork and Beef," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1144-1149.
  13. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  15. repec:jaa:jagape:v:36:y:2004:i:1:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. David A Bessler & Jian Yang & Metha Wongcharupan, 2003. "Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 1-33.
  18. David A. Bessler, 1984. "An Analysis of Dynamic Economic Relationships: An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 32(1), pages 109-124, 03.
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