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Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model

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  • Babula, Ronald A.
  • Bessler, David A.
  • Payne, Warren S.

Abstract

Using advanced methods of directed acyclic graphs with Bernanke structural vector autoregression models, this article extends recent econometric research on quarterly U.S. markets for wheat and wheat-based value-added products downstream. Analyses of impulse response simulations and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market elasticity parameters that drive these markets, and updated policy-relevant information on how these quarterly markets run and dynamically interact. Results suggest that movements in wheat and downstream wheat-based markets strongly influence each other, although most of these effects occur at the longer-run horizons beyond a single crop cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2004. "Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:42896
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.42896
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    1. Shane, Mathew & Roe, Terry L. & Somwaru, Agapi, 2008. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-16.
    2. Shane, Mathew & Roe, Terry L. & Somwaru, Agapi, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agriculture," Conference Papers 6686, University of Minnesota, Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy.
    3. Sayed H. Saghaian, 2007. "Beef safety shocks and dynamics of vertical price adjustment: The case of BSE discovery in the U.S. beef sector," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 333-348.
    4. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Time Series Econometrics: Evaluating the U.S. Market Impacts of High Soy Meal Prices," Working Paper ID Series 15885, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
    5. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Rogowsky, Robert A., 2005. "Dynamic Economic Relationships Among U.S. Soy Product Markets: Using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach with Directed Acyclic Graphs," Working Paper ID Series 15880, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
    6. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(3), pages 1-24, November.
    7. Babula, Ronald A. & Newman, Douglas & Rogowsky, Robert A., 2006. "A Dynamic Model of U.S. Sugar-Related Markets: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 37(2), pages 1-25, July.
    8. Lemus, David Magaña & Bessler, David A., 2014. "Price Dynamics in Agricultural Markets: Relationships between the U.S. and Mexico," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169736, Agricultural Economics Society.
    9. Adjemian, Michael K. & Janzen, Joseph & Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron, 2014. "Deconstructing Wheat Price Spikes: A Model of Supply and Demand, Financial Speculation, and Commodity Price Comovement," Economic Research Report 167369, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Unknown, 2006. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 2, Number 2, Fall 2006," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 2(2).
    11. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Causality and Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Markets: An Application of Error Correction Modeling and Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169806, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Pozo, Veronica F. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2012. "Price and Volatility Spillover between Livestock and Related Commodity Markets," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2009. "The Price Shock Transmission during the 2007-2008 Commodity Bull Cycle: A Structural Vector Auto-Regression Approach to the "Chicken-or-Egg" Problem," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49538, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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