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Farmgate, Processor, and Consumer Price Transmissions in the Wheat Sector

  • Babula, Ronald A.
  • Bessler, David A.

Time series techniques (vector autoregression or VAR) are employed to model a three-price dynamic system of the farmgate, processor, and consumer prices of wheat-related goods. An increase (presumably drought-induced) in farmgate wheat price is simulated to determine impacts on processor and consumer prices in the wheat sector. Several findings emerge. First, the increase in farm wheat price (PF-increase) may be expected to immediately generate processor price increases which are statistically significant for almost a year. Second, the PF-increase is expected to generate wheat-related consumer price increases, which are most significant for 22 months. Consumer price increases of wheat-related goods are expected to peak in strength at about the 8-month point following the PF-increase. And third, the consumer price increases are expected to be more gradual, less acute, but of longer duration than the processor price rises.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/138802
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Article provided by United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service in its journal Journal of Agricultural Economics Research.

Volume (Year): (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:uersja:138802
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  1. David A. Bessler, 1984. "An Analysis of Dynamic Economic Relationships: An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 32(1), pages 109-124, 03.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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