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Macroeconomics and Agriculture in Brazil: Results from Vector Autoregressions

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  • Brandao, Antoniob Salzazar

Abstract

This paper sets up an empirical framework to examine the relat10nsh1p between monetary po hey and relative prices of agncultural commod1t1es and the impacts of agncultural shocks on relative prices and the money supply. The observed poltcy mterrelat1onsh1ps between macroeconom1cs and agnculture have counterparts in the data Expansion m the money supply usually leads to a dechne m the tem1s of trade for agnculture Supply shocks, as expected, have opposite effects. Despite all the d1scussmn presently taking place about whether unrestricted vector autoregress1ons are useful for policy analysis, one should not disregard the above ftndmgs m designing new polJCies. In particular, a new agncultural pohcy that is less dependent on credit at concessionary rates has to rely on some compensatory scheme, wluch may simply be better pnces (e.g., less discnmmation against the foodproducrng sector) or any other pos1t1ve measure. Questions of efficiency and the spec1f1c goals of society should determine the po hey mix to be adopted.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandao, Antoniob Salzazar, 1987. "Macroeconomics and Agriculture in Brazil: Results from Vector Autoregressions," 1987 Occasional Paper Series No. 4 197443, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaaeo4:197443
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.197443
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. David A. Bessler, 1984. "Relative Prices and Money: A Vector Autoregression on Brazilian Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(1), pages 25-30.
    3. Robert G. Chambers, 1984. "Agricultural and Financial Market Interdependence in the Short Run," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(1), pages 12-24.
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