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Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Exports

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  • Shane, Mathew
  • Roe, Terry L.
  • Somwaru, Agapi

Abstract

While it is generally accepted that change in the real value of the dollar is an important determinant of exports, it has not been rigorously demonstrated that this relationship, derivable from theory, holds empirically for agricultural exports and the components of agricultural exports. Starting with a dynamic maximizing framework, this paper estimates the real trade-weighted exchange rate and trade partner income effects on U.S. agricultural exports. For the period 1970–2006, a one percent annual increase in trade partners’ income is found to increase total agricultural exports by about 0.75 percent, while a one percent appreciation of the dollar relative to trade partner trade-weighted currencies decreases total agricultural exports by about 0.5 percent. While these effects carry over to 12 commodity subcategories, they are conditioned by differences between bulk and high value commodities, and differences in the export demand from high compared to low income countries. We use a directed acyclic graphs (DAG) technique to identify the inverted fork causal relationships from vector autoregression (VAR) models. We also find that there is an asymmetric exchange rate effect so that the negative effect of exchange rate appreciation on exports sometimes dominates the positive effect of foreign income growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Shane, Mathew & Roe, Terry L. & Somwaru, Agapi, 2008. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(2), October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:45666
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Cantavella-Jordá & Carlos Guerra, 2013. "A demand for cuban tobacco exports," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 47(2), pages 93-107, July-Dece.
    2. Pasrun Adam & Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Ambo Wonua Nusantara & Abd Aziz Muthalib, 2017. "A Model of the Dynamic of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Indonesia’s Export," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 255-261.
    3. Durmaz, Nazif & Thompson, Henry, 2013. "US Cotton Exports and Bilateral Exchange Rates," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 14(1), January.
    4. Nie, Jun & Taylor, Lisa, 2013. "Economic growth in foreign regions and U.S. export growth," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 31-63.
    5. Hatzenbuehler, Patrick L. & Abbott, Philip C. & Foster, Kenneth A., 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Prices and Exchange Rates under Structural Change," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), May.
    6. Mathew Shane & David Kelch, 2012. "The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Problem: What It Means for U.S. Exports," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(4), pages 367-381, November.
    7. repec:kap:iaecre:v:18:y:2012:i:4:p:367-381 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jha, Jaya & Roe, Terry L., 2016. "U.S. Agricultural Export Competitiveness and Export Market Diversification," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236250, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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