Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Exports
While it is generally accepted that change in the real value of the dollar is an important determinant of exports, it has not been rigorously demonstrated that this relationship, derivable from theory, holds empirically for agricultural exports and the components of agricultural exports. Starting with a dynamic maximizing framework, this paper estimates the real trade-weighted exchange rate and trade partner income effects on U.S. agricultural exports. For the period 1970â€“2006, a one percent annual increase in trade partnersâ€™ income is found to increase total agricultural exports by about 0.75 percent, while a one percent appreciation of the dollar relative to trade partner trade-weighted currencies decreases total agricultural exports by about 0.5 percent. While these effects carry over to 12 commodity subcategories, they are conditioned by differences between bulk and high value commodities, and differences in the export demand from high compared to low income countries. We use a directed acyclic graphs (DAG) technique to identify the inverted fork causal relationships from vector autoregression (VAR) models. We also find that there is an asymmetric exchange rate effect so that the negative effect of exchange rate appreciation on exports sometimes dominates the positive effect of foreign income growth.
Volume (Year): 37 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.narea.org/|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guedae Cho & Ian M. Sheldon & Steve McCorriston, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 931-942.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 2002.
"Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics,"
NBER Working Papers
9118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open- Economy Macroeconomics," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 23-46, December.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 3533, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 2003. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," International Finance 0303004, EconWPA.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5t38s42v, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
- Rausser, Gordon C. & James, Chalfant A. & Love, H. Alan & Stamoulis, Kostas G., 1986.
"Macroeconomic linkages, taxes, and subsidies in the U.S. agricultural sector,"
Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series
qt1nj635tk, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Rausser, Gordon C. & Chalfant, James A. & Love, H. Alan & Stamoulis, Kostas G., 1986. "Macroeconomic linkages, taxes, and subsidies in the U.S. agricultural sector," CUDARE Working Paper Series 393, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- W. E. G. Salter, 1959. "Internal And External Balance: The Role Op Price And Expenditure Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(71), pages 226-238, 08.
- Orden, David, 1986. "Agriculture, trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-51.
- Claudio Montenegro & A. Senhadji Semlali, 1998. "Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations; A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Working Papers 98/149, International Monetary Fund.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521002882 is not listed on IDEAS
- Titus O. Awokuse & Yan Yuan, 2006. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. poultry exports," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 233-245.
- Titus O. Awokuse & David A. Bessler, 2003. "Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 1-24, May.
- David A. Bessler & Derya G. Akleman, 1998. "Farm Prices, Retail Prices, and Directed Graphs: Results for Pork and Beef," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1144-1149.
- Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2004. "Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(01), April.
- Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
- Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 1992. "An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-79, February.
- David A. Bessler, 1984. "An Analysis of Dynamic Economic Relationships: An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 32(1), pages 109-124, 03.
- Xinshen Diao & Terry Roe & Agapi Somwaru, 2001.
"What is the Cause of Growth in Regional Trade: Trade Liberalisation or RTAs? The Case of Agriculture,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 51-79, 01.
- Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry L. & Somwaru, Agapi, 1999. "What Is The Cause Of Growth In Regional Trade: Trade Liberalization Or Rta'S? The Case Of Agriculture," Working Papers 14605, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
- Hausman, Jerry A., 2003. "Triangular structural model specification and estimation with application to causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 107-113, January.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:45666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.