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The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. poultry exports


  • Titus O. Awokuse

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19717)

  • Yan Yuan

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77840)


Existing empirical evidence on the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on trade is generally conflicting and inconclusive. While some studies found a positive relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade, others argue for the opposite. Furthermore, the vast majority of past studies only focused on aggregate trade flow data. The lack of extensive literature on studies based on disaggregated and commodity-level data may partially explain the ambiguity in past empirical evidence. This paper re-examines the relationship between exchange rate volatility and U.S. poultry exports using a panel data for 49 importing nations over two subperiods: 1976-1985 and 1986-2000. The analysis uses a fixed-effects model specification and three alternative measures of exchange rate volatility. The empirical results suggest that the choice of volatility measure matters as there is a positive relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and poultry exports. These findings are consistent with those from several previous studies. [JEL classification: F310, Q170]. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 22: 233-245, 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Titus O. Awokuse & Yan Yuan, 2006. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. poultry exports," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 233-245.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:22:y:2006:i:2:p:233-245 DOI: 10.1002/agr.20082

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
    2. Haley, Stephen L. & Krissoff, Barry, 1987. "U.S. Grain Exports and the Value of the Dollar," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 2.
    3. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    4. Murat Doğanlar, 2002. "Estimating the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports: evidence from Asian countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(13), pages 859-863.
    5. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    6. Bessler, David A & Babula, Ronald A, 1987. "Forecasting Wheat Exports: Do Exchange Rates Matter?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(3), pages 397-406, July.
    7. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    8. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    9. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shane, Mathew & Roe, Terry L. & Somwaru, Agapi, 2008. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(2), October.
    2. Durmaz, Nazif & Thompson, Henry, 2013. "US Cotton Exports and Bilateral Exchange Rates," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 14(1), January.
    3. Durmaz, Nazif & Thompson, Henry, 2010. "Textile Producer Cotton Imports and the Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 21831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wesley, J.D. & Shen, Xuan & Li, Sheng & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2012. "Agricultural Trade Bias in Exchange Rate Volatility Effect Estimation: An Application of Meta-Regression Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124870, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Dengjun Zhang, 2015. "The trade effect of price risk: a system-wide approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1149-1167, May.
    6. Agiomirgianakis, George & Serenis, Dimitrios & Tsounis, Nicholas, 2017. "Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-38.
    7. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    8. Florian Verheyen, 2014. "The stability of German export demand equations – have German exports suffered from the strength of the euro?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 529-548, December.
    9. repec:ris:ecoint:0803 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Páll, Zsombor, 2015. "Three essays on the Russian wheat export," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 80, number 80.

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