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Developing Economic Indexes for the Quebec Hog/Pork Industry

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  • Lota D. Tamini
  • Jean‐Philippe Gervais

Abstract

The Quebec hog/pork industry has grown significantly over the last 25 years. Explanations of this growth in the literature have centered on government policies, expansion of profitable market opportunities, and reforms in marketing institutions. A coincident index model that trends with total hog slaughters in Quebec is estimated using a dynamic factor model. It implicitly defines a variable that measures the overall state of economic activity in the Quebec hog/pork industry. The results show that reforms in hog marketing institutions are strongly correlated with the economic expansion of the industry. A leading economic index also forecasts the growth of the coincident index using leading variables. The overall statistical performance of the leading coincident index is disappointing, but the growth in American inventories of frozen pork meat is shown to have useful predictive value. La filière porcine québécoise a connu une croissance significative lors des 25 dernières années. Plusieurs raisons ont été avancées dans la littérature pour expliquer cette croissance: politiques gouvernementales, réformes dans les institutions de mise en marché et l'apparition de nouveaux débouchés pour les produits porcins québécois. Ce travail construit un indice coïncidant qui suit la tendance des abattages de porcs en utilisant un modèle de facteurs dynamiques. Cet indice mesure l'état économique de la filière porcine québécoise. Les résultats démontrent que les réformes institutionnelles reliées à la mise en marché des porcs vivants sont fortement corrélées avec l'expansion économique de la filière. Un indice économique avancé est proposé pour prédire l'activitééconomique future de la filière en utilisant des indicateurs avancés. La performance générale de cet indice est décevante; mais l'utilisation de la croissance des inventaires américains de viande porcine congelée améliore la formulation de prévisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lota D. Tamini & Jean‐Philippe Gervais, 2005. "Developing Economic Indexes for the Quebec Hog/Pork Industry," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(1), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:53:y:2005:i:1:p:1-23
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2005.00366.x
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    1. Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Lambert, Remy, 2010. "The Simple Economics of Hog Marketing Reforms in Quebec," Working Papers 102014, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).

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