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Determinantes y evolución de los precios y cantidades de las principales exportaciones agrícolas de Colombia diferentes al café

Author

Listed:
  • Viviana A. Alfonso-Corredor

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Enrique Montes-Uribe

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • María A. Prieto-Sánchez

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Héctor M. Zárate-Solano

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

Este documento mide el efecto de los principales determinantes de las cantidades exportadas de bienes agrícolas diferentes al café a partir de un enfoque que desagrega el valor exportado entre volúmenes exportados y precios. Adicionalmente, incluye variables asociadas con el costo de las importaciones y los factores climáticos que pueden afectar la oferta de los productos agrícolas. La metodología econométrica se basa en técnicas de cointegración para datos con estructura de panel de cuatro productos agrícolas. Los principales resultados señalan a la demanda externa como la variable de mayor incidencia sobre el desempeño exportador de los bienes agrícolas, con un efecto más que proporcional sobre las cantidades despachadas. Así, en el largo plazo, se espera que un incremento de 10% en la demanda externa se traduzca en un aumento de 12% en los volúmenes exportados. Adicionalmente, se encontró que el efecto de la tasa de cambio real es positivo y significativo, una depreciación real de 10% se traduce en un crecimiento del volumen exportado de 3%. **** ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to measure the effect of the main determinants of the exported quantities of noncoffee agricultural goods by using an approach that disaggregates the exported value between exported volumes and prices. Additionally, it includes variables associated with the cost of imports and climatic factors that may affect the supply of agricultural products. The econometric methodology relies on panel cointegration techniques for four agricultural products. The main results indicate that external demand is the variable with the highest impact on the export performance of agricultural goods, with a more than a proportional effect on the quantities shipped. Thus, in the long term, it is expected that a 10% increase in external demand will result in a 12% increase in export volumes. Additionally, it was found that the effect of the real exchange rate is positive and significant, a real depreciation of 10% translates into an export volume growth of 3%.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana A. Alfonso-Corredor & Enrique Montes-Uribe & María A. Prieto-Sánchez & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución de los precios y cantidades de las principales exportaciones agrícolas de Colombia diferentes al café," Borradores de Economia 1100, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1100
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1100
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegración en datos-panel; determinantes de las exportaciones agrícolas; precios y cantidades; determinants of agricultural exports; prices and quantities; Panel-VEC;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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